Last night continued the start of a strong week as we cashed both props on D'Angelo Russell and C.J. McCollum and came just two McCollum points shy of cashing both value lines as well. Tonight, we'll begin by going back to the Cavaliers-Hornets matchup, this time backing Jarrett Allen.
Tonight, James Harden makes his return to Philadelphia and you can expect that he will get a lot of boos from 76ers fans. However, they will also be cheering Tyrese Maxey if he has a big game against his former teammate.
The Pacers are playing tonight, so you can expect a high total. Tonight's total against sits at 234 against the Bulls after the last meeting had 261 points. The Bulls will be hoping for more heroics from DeMar DeRozan.
On Monday night, we backed Caris LeVert's rebounds + assists line at 11.5 and he cashed with seven rebounds and assists apiece. Part of the reason I liked that matchup was because Charlotte is 28th in rebounds allowed. They are even more generous to centers, ranking 29th in rebounds allowed to the position this season. Jarrett Allen took advantage of this as he pulled down 13 rebounds to go along with his 17 points.
Allen's points + rebounds line is 28.5 at -120 odds at FanDuel tonight and he cleared that on Monday with 30 total. However, I noticed that when you parlay Allen for 15 points and 10 rebounds on FanDuel, the odds are slightly more favorable for him to get four less points and rebounds. Now, it is a little more risky than the points and rebounds combo because he could get 20 points and 9 rebounds instead. However, this parlay actually improves his hit rate.
Allen has had 15 points in 11 of his 15 games, 10 rebounds in nine of them, and secured a 15-point double-double eight times in that stretch. Meanwhile, he has cleared his points and rebounds prop just six times in that stretch. Just one time in his last 15 games did he go over that combo while having nine rebounds.
Allen should go over his PR combo if he has 15 points and 10 rebounds tonight. However, the Cavaliers are -10.5 favorites tonight, this time on the road after winning Monday's game by 23 points. Allen could have 15 points and 10 rebounds through three quarters, but not get to 29 points and rebounds because of a blowout.
Pick: Jarrett Allen 15+ Points & 10+ Rebounds Parlay (-110 at DraftKings)
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The Clippers and the 76ers met on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles. In that game, Tyrese Maxey scored just five points in the first half as he was focused on getting his teammates involved as the Sixers built a lead. However, as the Clippers came back and eventually tied the game, it was Maxey who put the game away. He scored 19 of his 24 points in the second half and finished 9-for-17 from the field.
Maxey's slow start ultimately did keep him from reaching this number in that game, his strong second half carried to Monday night. He blitzed the Kings early, scoring 21 of his 29 points in the first quarter. He has now hit this line in nine of his last 15 games. In four of the six games that he went under, he finished with exactly 24 points, which means he is one made 3 away from a 86% hit rate over the last month.
Getting up 3s has not been an issue for Maxey of late. He is averaging 2.9 made 3s on 7.8 attempts per game over his last 15 games, including knocking down three triples against the Clippers. The Clippers are 19th in 3-point percentage defense, but they have been struggling even more defensively. They are 29th in defensive rating over the last 15 games, which a Sixers offense that had been dormant recently score on 121 points on Sunday.
This is also an important game for both teams given that the Clippers have put themselves in jeopardy of falling into the NBA Play-In Tournament in the West while the Sixers are trying to move up and avoid it in the East. The Clippers are 5.5-point favorites tonight, which means if we get a close game tonight, Maxey will play 35+ minutes. That will help him clear this line and possibly even more. He has scored 30 points in seven of his past 15 games and 35 in one of them. He is +180 for 30 points and +500 for 35 points at FanDuel today.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 26.5 Points (-104 at DraftKings)
Two weeks ago, the Bulls and Pacers met in Indiana and the Pacers were poised to escape with a victory on the second night of a back-to-back, but they left 0.1 second on the clock for DeMar DeRozan. The 34-year-old forced overtime with one of his patented midrange shots. He went on to score nine points in overtime to finish with 46 for the game and help the Bulls pull out a 132-129 victory.
Tonight, DeRozan's points line is at 26.5, a number that he has hit in four of his last seven and eight of his last 15 games. Recently, he has cut it close with 28, 28 and 27 points in three of his last four games. He also has narrowly missed with 25 and 24 points as well. Generally, DeRozan will be in the vicinity of 25 points (-155 if you want to go safer tonight), which is all you can ask for in this matchup.
Indiana plays at one of the fastest paces in the league, second for the season and third over their last 15 games. They have struggled mightily on the defensive end this season. Even with slight improvement of late, they are 22nd in defensive rating over their last 15 games, giving up 266 points in their last two games in Los Angeles. In those games, LeBron James, Paul George, and Kawhi each scored 26 points, with George and Leonard clearing their lines.
Indiana still has one of the most potent offenses in the league and thus is a 2.5-point favorite in Chicago tonight. With the oddsmakers expecting another tight battle, that would set up the ball being in DeRozan's hands late with Zach LaVine shelved for the season. He is averaging 13.2 points per game in the second half and 7.1 in the fourth quarter over his last 15 games. He may need until the fourth quarter to clear this line, but should he do so, he is also +165 for 30 points and +500 for 30 points at FanDuel today.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 26.5 Points (-111 at FanDuel)
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