NBA Player Props | Saturday, Feb. 10
In the graph below, Tyler Schmidt has provided his top three NBA player props for tonight's seven-game slate using our prop model. The three plays feature Jordan Poole, Max Strus and Bradley Beal, who are all graded out well in our model on this Saturday night.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
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It has been an incredibly tough season for Jordan Poole in his first year with the Wizards. Poole was getting booed in his last home game after scoring zero points and fouling out in 25 minutes. After a career-year in Golden State, Poole is averaging 15.9 points per game while shooting 40.3% from the field and 29.7% from behind the arc this season.
However, what was on the table for Poole this year may actually be starting to come to fruition. Over his last four games, Poole has turned into a facilitator. He is averaging 6.8 assists per game in his last four contests and has at least five assists in each game. Our prop model has Poole projected to capture exactly five assists in this spot tonight.
The Wizards are 4.5-point home underdogs against the 76ers, who have been awful without reigning MVP Joel Embiid. Without the big fella this season, the 76ers have a 4-13 record and their net rating has dropped from 10.3 to -6.7.
Their defense has plummeted without the paint protection that Embiid provides. Not only is Embiid out for this game, but All-Star point guard Tyrese Maxey is in danger of missing his second consecutive game with an illness.
With Poole's struggles shooting the ball, it is nice to finally see him get his teammates more involved. It won't take much for Poole to reach this over and I love this as a ladder bet. Poole is +400 to record six or more assists tonight, which he has done in two of his last four games.
Given the matchup and Poole's willingness to pass, I love this spot.
Pick: Jordan Poole Over 3.5 Assists (-105)
Similar to the Poole prop, it won't take much for Max Strus to capture four or more rebounds. Despite the Cavaliers finally getting to full strength, this prop line is too low. Strus has hauled down at least four rebounds in 17 of his last 19 games. He does a fantastic job chasing down long rebounds and will get plenty of opportunities tonight.
Since the additions of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley and the losses of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, the Raptors rank 29th in rebounding percentage at 46.9%. The Raptors did trade for Kelly Olynyk at the deadline to try to beef up their frontcourt, but this is a positive rebounding matchup for Strus, who is one of the best rebounding guards.
Siakam did not attempt many 3-point shots, but that seems to be all that Barrett and Quickley want to do. These two alone are attempting a combined 10.5 3-pointers per game for the Raptors. Long shots equals long rebounds.
Our prop model has Strus projected for 5.8 rebounds in this matchup, which is over two rebounds more than his prop line. Due to the value, I would take this up to -150, but this also may get bumped to 4.5 rebounds and I would still feel comfortable taking the over.
Strus has five or more rebounds in four of his last five games, including a double-digit rebounding night against the Grizzlies. Not a bad spot to sprinkle Strus to get 8+ rebounds at +950.
Pick: Max Strus Over 3.5 Rebounds (-135)
Over the last three games, Bradley Beal looks like he is playing back in Washington. He has averaged 32.7 points, 5.3 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game while shooting 57.8% from the field and 54.5% from behind the arc. During that stretch, Beal has a team-high 33.2% usage rate and has attempted at least 21 field goals in all three contests.
Beal has soared over this points, rebounds and assists prop line with ease, doing so with simply his scoring in two of his last three games. Our prop model has Beal's over as the best player prop on the board tonight. We have him projected to capture 33.4 points, rebounds and assists against the Warriors tonight, which is well over his 28.5 line.
Since January 1st, the Warriors rank 24th in defensive rating at 119.1 despite holding a 9-8 record. The Suns are 1.5-point road favorites tonight, with the game total sitting at 239.5 points. In an up-tempo game environment, Beal will get plenty of chances to reach this over. If Beal is as aggressive as he's been, he might get it on points alone.
Beal has shown a peripheral upside, which is why I prefer his points, rebounds and assists rather than just his points. He has two double-doubles in his last four games, one with points and rebounds and the other with points and assists.
However, all of his over's look fantastic tonight. This is an exploitable matchup for Beal across the board.
