After a hitting a rough patch last week, we've begun the week with two straight profitable nights. However, we're always going for a sweep. Hopefully, that comes tonight and we begin in Atlanta where the Hawks will be hosting the Magic.
On Monday, we backed Victor Wembanyama against the Hawks. After a scoreless first half, he finished with 26 points and 13 rebounds. Paolo Banchero may join him in having another big game in Atlanta.
In Cleveland, the Bucks will be visiting the Cavaliers in a battle of top-four seeds in the East. Malik Beasley will look to continue his hot shooting as the Bucks go for their fourth-straight win.
With Sacramento's blown lead in Phoenix last night, the Pelicans moved out of a play-in spot and into the sixth seed at the halfway point of the season. Tonight, they will host the Hornets, who have lost 16 of their last 17 games. Charlotte may have a hard time dealing with Jonas Valanciunas tonight.
NBA Player Props Today (Jan. 17)
Paolo Banchero has gone under this line in his past four games and topped 25 points just once. However, those games came against the Timberwolves, Heat, Thunder and Knicks, who are all 11th or better in defensive rating.
In his previous six games, he scored 28 points or more in five of them. Additionally, Franz Wagner, Orlando's second-leading scorer, remains out of the lineup with a sprained ankle.
Banchero is averaging 25 points per game in six games without Wagner and he dropped 35 points on this Atlanta team 10 days ago without him in the lineup.
The Hawks are a great matchup for a multifaceted scorer like Banchero. They are 27th in points in the paint allowed per game, 3-point percentage defense, and points allowed per game to power forwards.
Banchero is averaging 1.4 3s per game this season, but he has increased his percentage by nearly six points (35.6%) over his rookie year. Most of his big scoring nights this season coincided with him making multiple 3s, including four in his last game against the Hawks. Banchero is also getting to the line over seven times per game.
With multiple ways to attack a porous Atlanta defense, I like Banchero's chances of scoring 28 points. Should he back his performance from the last matchup, you can back him for 35 points at +360 on FanDuel.
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Malik Beasley is the NBA's leading 3-point shooter at 48.1% this season. He is averaging three per game this season, but he has knocked down four 3s in seven of his last 12 games. He is shooting over 50% from 3 over the past two months.
As a result, Beasley has hit this line in eight of his past 12 games. In that span, he is averaging 12.5 points per game, a smidge over his season average of 11.9 points per game. Either way, an average game from him will clear this line. Just before the end of 2023, Beasley scored 15 points against the Cavaliers and that game was also in Cleveland.
Offensively, Beasley is enjoying life playing with Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo as it has created many open looks for him. He scored all of his points on five 3s in the last meeting. As a correlated play, I like over 2.5 3s for him, but -140 is a bit juiced for a 3s prop for my taste.
Beasley provides more value if he climbs the 3s ladder tonight. You can take him to make four and five 3s at +195 and +500, respectively, on FanDuel.
One of the best matchups on the board today is Jonas Valanciunas against the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets are 25th in rebounds allowed per game and 29th in rebounds allowed to centers.
Over his last three games against Charlotte, he has dominated and is averaging 16.3 rebounds per game against them. He has had 13 rebounds in all three of those games, including in the matchup last month.
Even without a monster effort on the glass, I still like his chances of clearing this line. He is averaging 9.6 rebounds per game this season and 9.8 over his last 15 games. He has hit this line at over a 60% clip both for the season and over his last 15 games. He has been hooked on eight in three other games this season as well.
This line is 9.5 elsewhere, but I am going with the safer line here because of the slightly higher hit rate and the blowout potential. However, given this matchup, his ladder has a ton of value tonight. On FanDuel, you can take him for 12 rebounds at +260, 14 rebounds at +600, and 16 rebounds at +1200.
Getting +1200 for a number that Valanciunas has hit in two of his last three games against Charlotte is insane value.
Pick: Jonas Valanciunas Over 8.5 Rebounds (-135)
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