There are nine games on the NBA schedule tonight, with plenty of value in the NBA player props betting markets.
In the table below, you will find my top three NBA expert picks for Saturday, March 16, including bets for Donovan Mitchell, DeMar DeRozan and Draymond Green.
Let's break down how I am targeting these three players tonight.
NBA Player Props Today: Expert Picks (Saturday, March 16)
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 5 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Playing in the early game, the Cavaliers are 4.5-point road favorites against the Rockets, but implied for only 109.5 points. This matchup has one of the lowest totals on the slate at 214.5 points. Expect a low-scoring battle with both the Cavaliers and Rockets ranking in the top eight in defensive rating. The Cavaliers also rank 22nd in pace this year.
After missing seven straight games with a knee injury, Donovan Mitchell played only 28 minutes in his first game back. He was likely going to play more, but the Cavaliers won by 21 points on the road against the Pelicans. Even in limited minutes, Mitchell managed to get up 16 field-goal attempts and had a 30.3% usage rate. Despite averaging a career-high 6.1 assists per game this season, Mitchell is a score-first shooting guard.
His assist rate also comes down when Darius Garland is healthy. Mitchell is averaging 7.1 assists per game without Garland in the lineup and only 5.5 with him. With Evan Mobley and catch-and-shoot specialist Max Strus still nursing injuries, Mitchell will be required to score more than facilitate.
Our prop model has Mitchell projected for only 4.3 assists in this matchup. The Rockets are allowing only 24.5 assists per game, which is tied for the third-lowest mark in the league. There are many factors in this under prop for Mitchell. A difficult matchup against the Rockets. Mitchell having to score more with Mobley and Strus out. Garland playing to diminish Mitchell's assists and potential assists. Mitchell still working his way back from his knee injury.
I would not consider this prop at 4.5, but under 5.5 assists at -115 on DraftKings is great value.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Under 5.5 Assists (-115; DraftKings)
The Bulls are double-digit home favorites against the Wizards despite playing without Zach LaVine and Coby White, who is doubtful. The Wizards have the worst record in the league at 11-55. They are the best matchup for an opposing player since they rank dead last in defensive rating but first in pace at 103.38 per game.
This is the first time these teams will meet this season, but they are still playing three times before the end of the year. The Bulls — and, specifically, DeMar DeRozan — are in a great spot to pick up a win and continue to climb the Eastern Conference standings. The Bulls are implied for 118 points while the Wizards allow 123.9 points per game.
With LaVine and White off the floor, DeRozan has a team-high +5.18% usage rate. His usage rate jumps to 30.5% and his assist rate jumps to 23.1%. Our prop model has DeRozan projected to capture 36.3 points and assists in this matchup; his line sits at only 32.5 tonight. I would feel comfortable taking this line up to 34.5.
DeRozan can get over this prop line with scoring alone, especially without LaVine and White in the lineup. He has scored 33 or more points in four of his last nine games.
Given how well he has played recently and the plus matchup, DeRozan should have a ceiling performance. Not only do the Wizards allow the most points per game, but they allow 29.6 assists per game, which is tied for the highest in the league.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 32.5 Points + Assists (-120; DraftKings)
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Last, but not least, Draymond Green's player props have the best value tonight, according to our prop model. My personal favorite is Green to go over 12.5 points and rebounds, but there are plenty of ways to take advantage of this spot. The Warriors are 2.5-point underdogs against the Lakers, but this game has the highest total at 233.5 points.
Green is questionable with a back injury and missed Golden State's last game against the Mavericks, but it would be shocking to see him miss this game against a Lakers team that he loves to play against.
Their first meeting was a double-overtime game that the Lakers won 145-144. That game does skew the stats a little bit, but Green had a near triple-double, stuffing the stat sheet with eight points, 14 rebounds, 11 assists, three steals and two blocks. In his previous game against the Lakers, Green finished with eight points, seven rebounds and five assists in only 21 minutes. Based on the matchup and best available prop, we're taking his over points and rebounds.
Stephen Curry is questionable to play after missing his last two games due to injury. He is expected to suit up, but feel confident in this prop even if Curry plays. In the last game that Curry was healthy, Green recorded a triple-double with 11 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists. He is a stat-stuffing machine with a ton of upside in this matchup.
Since the All-Star Break, the Lakers rank 28th in defensive rating at 119.2 per game. Green thrives playing against LeBron James and the Lakers. In his last five regular season games in this matchup, Green has averaged 9.8 points and 9.4 rebounds. Our prop model has Green projected for 16.9 points and rebounds in this spot tonight.
I would easily take this prop if it rose to 13.5 points and rebounds. Like I previously mentioned, there are many ways to take advantage of this spot. If you want to get crazy, take a sprinkle on Green to record a triple-double at +6000.
Pick: Draymond Green Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds (-130; DraftKings)
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