It took the Clippers some time to figure out things after acquiring James Harden, but they have won seven straight games and now hold the sixth seed in the Western Conference. Kawhi Leonard has been a star in that stretch, including scoring 36 points on Saturday night against the Knicks. However, tonight may be Paul George's night as he returns to Indiana to face his former team.
In their first game without both Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers offense did not have much trouble against the Hawks. Donovan Mitchell struggled with his shot, but dished out 13 assists. I will be looking to back him as a facilitator again.
Another player facing his former team tonight is Julius Randle as his Knicks are still in Los Angeles to face the Lakers. Randle will look to continue his strong play as he tries to help the Knicks get back in the win column.
Paul George suffered a hip injury last Tuesday that kept him out of the following game against the Warriors. After a slow start on Saturday against the Knicks, he did not look to be hampered much by the injury. George scored 19 points of his 25 points in the second half as the Clippers pulled away for a 144-122 victory. George has now scored 20 points in six of his last 10 games. In four of those games, he had exactly 25 points.
George may have his sights set a little higher as he returns to Indiana to face the Pacers. With the Thunder and now Clippers, George has faced the Pacers eight times in his career and he is averaging 28.3 points per game in those games. He has hit this line in five of his last six games against them, scoring 30 points in all of those games.
If George gets the opportunity, he might do damage beyond the arc in this spot. The Pacers allow the fewest threes per game (10.5), but have the worst three-point defense by percentage at 39.6%. George is shooting 39% from three on eight attempts per game this season.
George should find plenty of success inside the arc as well. The Pacers allow the second most points per game and have really struggled with forwards. This month alone, they have allowed 30 points to Jimmy Butler (twice), Jayson Tatum, and Anthony Edwards. George will look to take advantage of that and continue his own success against his former team. You can take him for 30 points at +210 and 35 points at +550 on FanDuel.
Pick: Paul George Over 22.5 Points (-140)
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Without Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell takes on an even bigger role as an initiator for the Cavaliers. On Saturday night, he took 21 shots and had 13 assists against just one turnover. Mitchell slid over to point guard with Max Strus and Isaac Okoro joining him at shooting guard and small forward, respectively. However, Mitchell's playmaking did not come as a surprise to me.
It was the first the time he notched six assists in five games without Garland this season, but he has now hit this line in seven of 14 games without Garland dating back to last season. In those 14 games, he is averaging 6.7 assists per game. He has also recorded six assists in five of his last eight games overall.
On paper, Mitchell has a difficult matchup tonight as the Rockets are allowing the fewest assists per game in the league. However, this month, point guards D'Angelo Russell, Derrick Rose, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Damian Lillard have had at least six assists against the Rockets. Lillard had 11 assists last night and now the Rockets are traveling on the second end of a back-to-back.
This line is at 6.5 on FanDuel, but at 5.5 on DraftKings. This means we need Mitchell to get less than half of his assist total from Saturday. If he does reach double digits again, you can back him for eight assists at +210 and 10 assists at +650 on FanDuel.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 5.5 Assists (-135)
Whether it has been points, rebounds, or even a combination of the two, Julius Randle has been good to us this season. Last Monday, we backed Randle's points + rebounds combo and he cleared it with just his scoring as he went for 34 points and pulled down eight rebounds for good measure against Toronto. He has now scored 20 points in each of his last 10 games, hitting this line in six of them. In that span, he is averaging 27.4 points per game and finished with 23 and 22 points in two more games.
Randle had a strong track record of success against Toronto and he does against the Lakers as well. The Lakers matchup is even more personal for him. Randle grew up a Lakers fan and they were the team that drafted him as he spent his first four seasons in Los Angeles. However, the Lakers moved on after his rookie contract expired and he does not let them forget it.
In 12 career games against the Lakers, Randle is averaging 25.1 points per game, scoring 20 points in nine of them. Randle has scored 30 points in each of the last three games in Los Angeles and four of six overall. It helps that the Knicks and Lakers have also played competitive games of late and the Lakers are only favored by 4.5 points tonight.
Another tight game tonight means Randle will play his full complement of minutes. Down the stretch, Jalen Brunson and Randle are the primary scoring threats. That should help him hit this line tonight. Additionally, if he does score 30 points against the Lakers again, you can back Randle at +310 on FanDuel.
Pick: Julius Randle Over 22.5 Points (-125)
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