Tonight, the NBA kicks off the weekend with a trio of Game 3s, beginning with Bucks vs. Pacers.
In Game 2, Pascal Siakam helped the Pacers even the series with another 30-point performance. However, tonight, I'll be backing the Pacers' other star as they go for a 2-1 lead.
After taking Game 1, the Clippers got a boost with Kawhi Leonard returning to the lineup. However, a strong defensive performance from the Mavericks helped them even the series. Tonight, Luka Doncic and the Mavericks will look to take control of the series.
Speaking of defense, Minnesota will take a 2-0 lead to the desert after holding the Suns under 100 points in the first two games. However, they might get an offensive punch from Karl-Anthony Towns in Game 3.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 4.5 Rebounds (-138)
Bucks vs. Pacers (Game 3) | 5:30 p.m. ET
Through the first two games of this series, Tyrese Haliburton has collected 11 rebounds. He hit this line in Game 1 with seven and finished just short on Tuesday with four.
Haliburton has now hit this line in five of the last seven meetings between these two, averaging 5.7 rebounds per game in that span. He's had seven rebounds or more in three of those games, but five will clear this line tonight.
I like this spot for Haliburton in part because of the pace that the Pacers play at, which will lead to more possessions.
The teams have also combined for 143 3-point attempts in the first two games. Misses on 3s lead to long rebounds, which are easier for a guard like Haliburton to track down.
Haliburton has averaged 7.5 rebound chances through the first two games, and he's collected 73% of them, the majority of them being uncontested.
He's also playing 37 minutes a game, which will give ample time to grab five rebounds.
Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 4.5 Rebounds (-138)
Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Assists (-102)
Clippers vs. Mavericks (Game 3) | 8 p.m. ET
In Game 2, Doncic didn't clear this line, as he was hooked with nine assists. Doncic is a player that can pile up triple-doubles, but assists are the leg that he's struggled to hit against the Clippers of late.
However, in his first two playoff series against the Clippers, he averaged 9.5 assists per game.
Despite the recent trends favoring an under here, I see upside for Doncic to get at least 10 assists tonight.
In Game 2, Doncic had 18 potential assists, and he finished with nine assists in a game in which his team only scored 96 points.
To pivot to another series for a second, Franz Wagner had 26 potential assists through the first two games of the Magic-Cavaliers series, but his teammates had only converted five of them. Like Dallas, Orlando had been struggling offensively on the road. Last night, the Magic broke out for 121 points and Wagner had eight assists.
Doncic has the ball in his hands far more than Wagner does, which is why his line is much higher. However, I find the comparison apt because role players play better at home.
In Kyrie Irving, Doncic has a great and efficient option for getting assists, but Irving also doesn't need to be set up by Doncic. Doncic and Irving are averaging 59.5 points through the first two games in the series, but their teammates are averaging just 37 points.
The Mavericks should be more comfortable at home, as they're 4.5-point favorites with a team total of 108.5 points.
Should Doncic get more assistance from his supporting cast, it'll likely lead to him setting them up with 10 assists or more.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Assists (-102)
Karl-Anthony Towns More Than 17 Points
Wolves vs. Suns (Game 3) | 10:30 p.m. ET
Through the first two games of this series, Towns has had four fouls in both games, which you have to expect when backing him in the postseason.
However, he scored 19 points in Game 1 despite the foul trouble. He only scored 12 in Game 2, but in total, he's only played about seven minutes in the fourth quarter in the first two games of this series because Minnesota was able to pull away.
Still, Towns has a great track against the Suns recently — and over the course of his career.
Towns is averaging 18 points in his last seven games against the Suns. He's surpassed this projection in four of those games. However, he's scored at least 24 points in three of those games. That's closer to his career average of 23.3 points per game in 27 career games against the Suns.
Additionally, Minnesota was able to take Game 2 despite getting just 27 points from Towns and Anthony Edwards. Jaden McDaniels scored 25 points in the win. If he pulls back, Minnesota will need its stars to answer to what will likely be the Suns' best punch with their season on the brink.
Towns may get three fouls, score five points and only play 10 minutes in the first half, but I like him to ultimately surpass 17 points and potentially 20 as well.
