The final stretch of the NBA regular season tips off tonight! There is still a lot to be determined as teams in both the Western Conference and Eastern Conference fight for the playoffs.
Of course, there are also teams that are going to coast in an attempt to secure a top pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Nonetheless, there is plenty of profitable opportunities in the player prop market.
Below are my three favorite player props for the action on Thursday.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tyrese Haliburton, Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+120)
| Spread | Celtics -9 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Indiana Pacers open the second half of the season by welcoming the No. 1 seed in the East — the Boston Celtics — to town. This will be the second matchup between these teams; the Pacers won the first meeting 117-112.
One player who shined in that game was All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. The Iowa State product racked up 33 points, but more importantly, knocked down six 3-point shots. Since joining the Pacers, Haliburton has knocked down at least four 3-point shots in three matchups against the Celtics.
Furthermore, over the last five games prior to the All-Star break, Haliburton shot 53.6% from beyond the arc. I expect his long-range success to continue.
Jonas Valanciunas, Over 9.5 Rebounds (-115)
| Spread | Raptors -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The New Orleans Pelicans travel north of the border to take on the Toronto Raptors to tip off the second half of the season. Jonas Valanciunas has been a player who has plenty of success rebounding against the Raptors. Though despite not having a true big man for much of the season, the Raptors are top 10 in opponent rebounds allowed per game.
However, the one position Toronto continues to struggle with to keep the opposition off the glass is center — the Raptors have allowed an average of 14.8 rebounds per game to the position. Twelve starting centers have grabbed 10 or more rebounds against the Raptors this season (including Valanciunas).
In a home game earlier this season against Toronto, Valanciunas grabbed 13 boards. Since Valanciunas was traded from the Raptors back in the 2019 season, he has faced his old team on six occasions. He has totaled at least 10 rebounds in five of those six contests, and in one game, he fell short by one.
In those six career games versus the Raptors, Valanciunas has averaged 15 rebounds per game. I expect the dominance on the glass to continue — take over 9.5.
Luka Doncic, Over 1.5 Steals (+125)
| Spread | Mavericks -13.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The new-look Dallas Mavericks welcome their division and state rivals — the San Antonio Spurs — to town. The Spurs, of course, are one of the teams that will be in “tank” mode for the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.
One of the underrated parts of Luka Dončić's game is his ability to get steals, especially against a team like the Spurs. San Antonio commits 15.6 turnovers per game, which is fourth most in the NBA. In addition, opponents are averaging 8.3 steals per game against the Spurs, which is second most.
Dončić has had plenty of success taking the basketball away from the Spurs. He has recorded at least two steals in four straight games against them, including a matchup earlier this season in which he had four.
Furthermore, Dončić has two or more steals in three out of the last five games. With a young and turnover-prone team coming into town, I expect Dončić to continue taking the ball away.
