There are times when the NBA Prop Model spits out a theme guiding us in a winning direction. The theme tonight is taking the under on top players such as LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Tyler Herro.
Let's dive right in to Saturday's top NBA player props and picks.
NBA Player Props & Picks
LeBron James, Under 7.5 Assists (-105)
| Spread | Lakers -1.5 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | ESPN2 |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The best prop in our NBA Model features LeBron James who continues to chase history. James is only 62 points behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most points in NBA history. It is only a matter of time until he breaks the record, but points is the focal point for James right now, not capturing assists.
Under 7.5 assists is the prop to target for James who is projected for only 6.1 assists against the Pelicans on the road. Despite losing 10 consecutive games, the Pelicans still rank seventh in Defensive Rating (111.9), entering tonight's games. They also rank just outside the top 10 allowing 25.1 assists per game.
James has gone under this prop line in four of his last seven games as he is averaging 7.1 assists per game this season. Anthony Davis is back in the Lakers' lineup, but James has still been a scoring machine. James is averaging over 30 points per game for the second-straight year as the Lakers are still three games under .500 and remain out of the Western Conference playoffs.
Even with the 10-straight losses, the Pelicans are still 17-9 at home this season as the Lakers are just 12-16 on the road. Having a projection nearly 1.5-assists lower than the prop line, this under features the best line on the board. James has shown high assists numbers recently, but two of those games went into overtime, which is unpredictable. Take the under on 7.5 assists for King James.
Tyler Herro, Under 5.5 Assists (-115)
| Spread | Bucks -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
There will be a shortage of opportunities in this Bucks vs. Heat matchup for Tyler Herro reaching over this assists prop. This game total is one of the lowest on the slate at 222.5 points with the Bucks favored by -5.5 points. The Bucks are 22-5 at home this season as they are also the second-best in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile the Heat have a 108.5 implied point total.
Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson are both out, while Victor Oladipo is doubtful to play tonight. That will provide more playing time and upside for Herro in this matchup, but he has failed to reach this over assists prop line in nine of his last 12 games. Herro is averaging a career-high in assists this season, but that is only 4.4 per game, which is well below this prop line as well.
After a career-high 28.9% usage rate last season, Herro has seen that drop 3% to 25.9% this season despite every statistic rising besides his scoring. The Bucks have won six-straight games as they are finally fully healthy. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton are back in the lineup.
The Bucks rank second in Defensive Rating (109.8), while allowing only 111.8 points per game. Opponents are shooting 45.4% from the field and capturing 22.9 assists per game, which is the third-lowest in the league. Our model has Herro projected for only 4.5 assists in this difficult matchup against the Bucks.
Stephen Curry, Under 6.5 Assists (-150)
| Spread | Warriors -10 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ABC |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Seeing the defending champions with an overall record of 26-26 this season is surprising, but they are double-digit home favorites against the Mavericks. The main reason why the spread is so high is the Mavericks are without Luka Doncic and Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie is also questionable. The Warriors should have no trouble in this game where they are 19-6 at home.
Stephen Curry has seen his assist numbers fluctuate a lot in recent games. Over the last five games, Curry has assist numbers of 3, 11, 12, 3, and 5. Three of those five games have gone well under this assist prop line. His scoring hasn't wavered as Curry is averaging 32.8 points per game over that span.
Our NBA Model has Curry projected for only 5.3 assists in this matchup against the Mavericks. A big reason why has to be how slow the Mavericks play this season. They rank as the second-slowest team in Pace (96.2), but don't have Doncic to slow the game down with. They may play a little faster tonight, but they also may get run out of the gym by the Warriors avalanche.
This under is a heavy favorite at -150 on FanDuel Sportsbook implying that it may move down to 5.5 assists. Even at 5.5 assists, I would feel comfortable taking this under at 5.5 assists as well and trusting our NBA Model. Either way, make sure to shop around for the best line, but it currently resides on FanDuel.
