With the league approaching the Trade Deadline on February 8th there are many teams that may be on the look for an upgrade or selling off assets. Couple that with some key injuries and there is plenty to discuss on this week's edition of the Player Props Forecast.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
Julius Randle's Expected Absence in NY
Schedule: Jan. 29 at Hornets | Jan. 30 vs. Jazz | Feb. 1 vs. Pacers
With the Knicks up 17 on the Miami Heat on Saturday, Julius Randle took a hard fall that resulted in a dislocated right shoulder. The good news for New York is that Randle is a lefty and while the initial x-ray found nothing of significance we will be waiting for definitive answers from the MRI, per Adrian Wojnarowski.
The X-Ray didn’t show much damage, source said. An MRI is coming later tonight. https://t.co/KLj4nSnF2a
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) January 27, 2024
Last season, Stephen Curry suffered a partially dislocated shoulder without significant structural damage and he missed 11 games. Randle (29.6%) is second on the team in Usage next to Jalen Brunson (29.6%) and no one else is very close at this point. I would expect OG Anunoby (14.7%) to see a significant uptick in usage as the Knicks look for some more creation.
OG Anunoby's pointsprop is set for 18.5, he has exceeded this number in just 4 of 14 games with the Knicks, but with the void that Randle is leaving coupled with the bigger offensive role Anunoby had hinted at wanting in Toronto, this is an opportunity for him to shine.
Pascal Siakam is a similar comp to Randle in terms of Usage and position. In 10 games on the Raptors without Siakam last season, Anunoby averaged 22.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists and exceeded this 18.5 line in 7 of the 10 games while averaging 8.4 FGM on 18.2 FGA. He did turn the ball over a bit and averaged 3.4 turnovers per game. He's averaging just 1.4 turnovers per game with the Knicks with 2+ in 3/14, but given the expectation for an increased role, I think there is a buy-low opportunity here.
The Knicks may decide to run a stretch offense without Randle and try to spread the floor with Brunson as the head of the snake. This may open up more opportunities for Josh Hart, Quentin Grimes, and even Miles McBride. All three are capable 3-point shooters (Hart being the worst of the bunch) but this could open up the floor even more for Brunson to find slashers attacking the paint. His assists line of 7.5 may be one to target an over for in a soft matchup against the Hornets on Monday.
Scary Terry to Miami
Schedule: Jan. 29 vs. Suns | Jan. 31 vs. Kings | Feb. 2 at Wizards
The Miami Heat bolstered their frontcourt last week when they acquired Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets. The Heat have played 3 games with Rozier, and there are some actionable takeaways for us despite them losing all three.
Tyler Herro (27.7%), Bam Adebayo (27.0%), and Jimmy Butler (25.3%) have lead the Heat in Usage this season, but Rozier has instantly injected himself into the rotation with a 24% Usage Rate. While this is a downturn from his 29.2% mark in Charlotte this season, there is still an opportunity for him to excel. He has struggled so far an averaged just 8.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in 30.1 minutes per game; however, the shooting percentages are horrible going just 10/33 from the field and 2/11 from 3-point range. These should regulate.
Rozier is an excellent scoring threat, his points prop of 16.5 against the Suns is one he's exceeded in 76% of games this season and 78% of games over the last two. These three games he has played have been brutal matchups. He debuted in Memphis off the bench, but then he played the Celtics and the Knicks – teams with elite defensive wings. This matchup against Phoenix on Monday is exploitable. I'd consider an over 16.5 points bet.
One player that has dished a bit more of late is Tyler Herro. Herro is averaging 4.1 assists per game on the season. Herro has actually passed to Rozier at the highest frequency of any of his teammates in this stretch. Rozier's poor shooting has led to just 1 assist across these 3 games. Herro is averaging 4 assists on 12 potentials over these last three which is a significant uptick from the 7.6 potentials per game this season, per NBA Advanced Stats. I think there is room for upside here, and I'll take Herro to exceed 3.5 assists, a number he's hit in 7/13 home games where Rozier could break out.
With matchups against the Suns, Kings, and Wizards this week, there is an opportunity for significant upside in these games.
The Training Wheels are Off – Victor Wembanyama's Minutes Limit is Off
Schedule: Jan. 29 vs. Wizards | Jan. 31 vs. Magic | Feb. 2 vs. Pelicans
The Miami Heat bolstered their frontcourt last week when they acquired Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets. The Heat have played 3 games with Rozier, and there are some actionable takeaways for us despite them losing all three.
The Spurs indicated that Victor Wembanyama's minutes limit will be removed and he's started to see his minutes hit the upper 20s and 30 minutes over the last few games.
Wemby has been transcendent this season. He is averaging 20.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 3.1 blocks, and 3.4 turnovers per game. The most impressive part of this is that he's actually been even better of late with this minutes restriction in the month of January. In 12 games, he has averaged 24.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 3.2 blocks, and 3.6 turnovers in just 26.1 minutes per game.
These numbers should only improve as he sees more playing time even if the efficiency dips a touch.
One player that should directly benefit from Victor playing more minutes is Tre Jones. When Jones plays with Victor he sees a significant uptick in his assists. Over his last 10 games as a starter playing alongside Victor, he has averaged 8.2 assists per game compared to just 5.9 on the season as a whole. His assists prop is set at 8.5 on Monday against the Wizards in a rematch from January 20th where he dished out 12 assists.
