The NBA season is heading into the home stretch coming out of the All-Star Break. With most of the league still in the Playoff picture, this is a make-or-break time for many teams. Let's dive into some rotation changes, injuries, and suspensions.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
Miami's Feeling the Heat
Schedule: Feb. 26 at Kings | Feb. 27 at Trail Blazers | Feb. 29 at Nuggets
The Miami Heat are going to be without a number of players on Monday night as Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, and Thomas Bryant were all suspended for their role in the on-court fight between the Pelicans over the weekend. Couple that with some injuries to Tyler Herro (Knee – Questionable), Orlando Robinson (Back – Questionable), Josh Richardson (Shoulder – Out), and Terry Rozier (Knee – Questionable) and they may be deep on their depth chart. Rozier may return for this game but I would be shocked if he is not on a minutes restriction.
Two players I will target on Monday are Caleb Martin and Jaime Jaquez as they both likely fill in for Butler to a degree and Jovic is also suspended so he cannot eat those minutes either. Both Martin and Jaquez have played more of late but both generally need someone else to sit in order for them to have a big game. When Jaquez has played 30+ minutes he averages 16 points per game and when Martin plays 30+ he averages 14.8 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Considering this is a back-to-back for the Kings, this sets up for a solid opportunity for Miami. I'll wait for the status of Herro and Rozier, but I'll be looking for Martin and Jaquez on Monday night.
Once Jimmy returns from suspension though, he should thrive. Last season he averaged 21.7 ppg prior to the All-Star Break, but after? 25.6 points per game. He reached back and hit the extra gear. This week he will be eligible to play against the Blazers, the Nuggets, and the Jazz – all teams he can score against. I'll look for a points prop around 21.5.
Life Without Trae Young
Schedule: Feb. 27 vs. Jazz | Feb. 29 at Nets | Mar. 2 at Nets
The Atlanta Hawks got the bad news on Sunday that Trae Young will miss at least the next four weeks as he has a torn radial collateral ligament in the fifth finger of his left hand which will require surgery. This week, they play the Jazz on Tuesday and then the Nets on both Thursday and Saturday.
The natural beneficiary of Trae's team-leading 34.7% usage rate is Dejounte Murray. Murray is used to handling significant usage from his time with the Spurs when he logged a 31.5% usage rate in his final season there which is about 6% more than his current usage this season, per Cleaning the Glass.
Dejounte has averaged 26.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game without Trae. His rebounds + assists line was set at 12.5 on Sunday and he cleared that with ease. Murray is a triple-double threat every game moving forward as long as Trae is out considering he recorded 13 in 68 games in his final season with the Spurs. He's recorded just one as a member of the Hawks, but the circumstances are dramatically different playing alongside Trae. I'll look to target his props against the Jazz in a game that should be played with a ton of Pace with Atlanta playing the fourth-fastest and Utah the seventh, per Dunks and Threes.
It is notable that both Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu see their scoring drop without Trae, they do not have nearly the same type of facilitator to dish them lobs on rolls to the rim. While Okongwu (toe) is out for the next week or so, expectations should be tempered for both him and Capela as scoring threats.
Bench Klay Thompson
Schedule: Feb. 27 at Wizards | Feb. 29 at Knicks | Mar. 1 at Raptors
Steve Kerr made the tough decision to bring Klay Thompson off the bench for the foreseeable future and it has paid dividends on the court. In 4 games off the bench, Klay is averaging 18.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game. His shot volume is still high; however, the matchups he's facing are a bit softer and he is not forcing as many shots. Klay has a solid matchup against the Knicks on Thursday and the Celtics on Sunday, both teams that allow a high volume of 3 point attempts.
The primary benefit of moving Klay to the bench has been allowing Podziemski to start alongside Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Jonathan Kuminga. That lineup has a tremendous +28.1 point differential while scoring 129.1 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. They are a wrecking ball but do struggle a bit with size. When they play bigger teams, it will an opportunity to bet on rebounds or 1Q rebounds even. The Wizards have Bagley; the Knicks have Hart, Achiuwa, and Hartenstein; the Raptors have Poeltl and Barnes; and the Celtics have Porzingis and Tatum.
Podziemski and Kuminga are playing well over their last 4 games since Klay moved to the bench. Kuminga is averaging 12.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists while Podziemski is averaging 10.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. They have plenty of minutes now as starters; however, they may get fewer looks when playing alongside Steph Curry who will always be the primary offensive option.
