As we get more settled into the new year, it's time to start accepting the tone set by each team thus far this season as we inch closer to the halfway mark. From the not-so-pretty state of the Hawks and Pistons to the Knicks having one player that shouldn't be slept on, it's plenty to sort through in this week's edition of Player Props Forecast. So let's hop right on in!
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
The Atlanta Hawks: A Pace Up Dream
Schedule: Jan. 10 vs. 76ers | Jan. 12 vs. Pacers | Jan. 13 vs. Wizards
The Atlanta Hawks have struggled throughout this season (at least relative to their own expectations) and are just 14-20 sitting in 11th in the East. Their defense has been abysmal, they have the second-worst Adjusted Defensive Rating in the league and they exacerbate their issues by playing at the fifth-fastest Pace. Their offense can keep them in games (5th-best) but every game is seemingly a blitz for points.
This week, the Hawks take on the Sixers, the Pacers, and the Wizards. The Wizards are terrible but the Sixers and the Pacers have no difficulty scoring at will.
A couple spots I'll be looking for in these games are Joel Embiid points props. In two games against Atlanta this season, Embiid is averaging 35 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. He has dominated against the Hawks and over the last two seasons he has scored 38, 32, 30, 42, and 26 points against Clint Capela. I'd stay away from the Rebounds but the points are a great look. Embiid is averaging 34.6 points per game and should have zero difficulty in this spot. And if you needed another reason to bet this, Embiid will have had plenty of rest, with the Sixers last game being on Saturday and this game on Wednesday.
The matchups with the Pacers have been dynamic but they've dropped both. Indiana has hung 157 and 150 points in the two games, just insane numbers overall. What has been a bit surprising is that Haliburton scored 37 points in one game but they've only had three other 20+ point performances despite those offensive outputs. It has been well-rounded efforts by the team. The key has been Haliburton's facilitating. He has logged 18 and 16 assists on 19 potentials per game. It is a bit interesting that his conversion rate is so high but given Atlanta's defensive woes it is not surprising. They opened his assists line at 12.5 for their last game but it closed at 14.5 at some books. Keep an eye out for this at the open. Dejounte Murray has played great in this matchup scoring 30 and 28 points in the two games. Indiana has allowed opposing guards to drive to the rack with their funnel-like defense, and Murray does that zealously.
The game against the Wizards is interesting because both teams have been so bad. This will be their fourth matchup against each other and Atlanta has won all three of the prior matchups scoring 130, 130, and 136. Kuzma has played well in those games, averaging 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists with 3.3 3s per game. Deni Avidja also had strong games with 16 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. For the Hawks, Trae has a double-double in each game and Dejounte Murray has averaged 22.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists.
Some Dude Named Hartenstein
Schedule: Jan. 9 vs. Trail Blazers | Jan. 11 at Mavericks | Jan. 13 at Grizzlies
When the Knicks lost Mitchell Robinson due to injury, there was a massive void that needed to be filled and many people questioned who could do that for the Knicks.
Isaiah Hartenstein has stepped up to the call and has been even better of late.
As a starter this season, he is averaging 8 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 3 assists in 10 games. Since they've acquired OG Anunoby, Harteinstein has two monster rebounding games of 20 and 19 against the Bulls and the Wizards.
This week, he has excellent matchups against the Blazers, the Mavericks, and the Grizzlies. On a per game basis, all three teams allow their opponents to dominate on the glass. These teams allow the sixth, third, and fourth most rebounds per game to their opponents, per Basketball Reference.
While Hartenstein is not a player that is a big scoring threat, he certainly can have some significant rebounding games. Keep an eye on his rebounds prop this week.
Detroit Without a Motor
Schedule: Jan. 9 vs. Kings | Jan. 10 vs. Spurs | Jan. 12 vs. Rockets
The Pistons suffered an injury to Cade Cunningham against the Nuggets on Sunday when he injured his knee. The Pistons play three games this week including a Tuesday/Wednesday back-to-back and there's a decent chance that Cunningham could miss multiple games this week.
Cunningham is by far the team's highest-usage player and if he misses time it would immediately open minutes and Usage for a number of players.
Killian Hayes always gets an expanded run without Cade, along with Alec Burks and Jaden Ivey. None of them are particularly good at this point; however, with matchups against the Kings and Spurs early in the week, this could be exploitable.
Last season, Hayes saw his scoring and assists spike to 11.5 points and 6.8 assists per game without Cade and Jaden Ivey's assists increased from 3.8 to 5.5 per game. Both of their assists lines are potential targets against the Kings and the Spurs, two teams that play at relatively fast Paces.
