NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
We are in the final week of March as the regular season comes to a close. Where can we find value as teams either prepare for the NBA Playoffs or the Lottery?
Jalen Green's Stock is on the Rise
Schedule: March 25 vs. Trail Blazers | March 27 at Thunder | March 29 at Jazz
The Houston Rockets sit one game out of the Western Conference Play-In Tournament at 35-35 and one loss behind the Warriors. While they are without Alperen Sengun, one player that has risen to the occasion is Jalen Green.
Green's rise comes at an interesting time for him contractually as he could earn himself an extension in the offseason or the Rockets could elect to try and wait one more season before paying the top pick given he has been a bit of a lightning rod in terms of whether or not his future remains with the Rockets.
One thing that is clear, he has thrived without Alperen Sengun this season. In 7 games without Sengun, Green has averaged 30.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 4.4 3s per game. He has been the engine for this Rockets' offense. Some of this has been the Rockets have played relatively weak opponents in those 7 games (Hawks, Spurs, Wizards x 2, Cavaliers, Bulls, Jazz). But, this week they continue to have softer matchups with games against the Blazers, Jazz, and Mavericks, with the clear toughest matchup being the Thunder.
Green's prop lines are set at 25.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 3.5 3s in this game against the Blazers. The Blazers have actually done a decent job of limiting 3 point opportunities this season but they have gotten torched by SGs lately. They've given up big games KCP and Braun (30 combined), Jaylen Brown (27), Dejounte Murray (40), and Jalen Green himself (27). In two games against the Blazers this year he's scored 29 and 27 – both of those games were with Sengun. Not only will Sengun miss this game but Jabari Smith will as well due to suspension. Green should have free reign to attack the basket.
I'll grab Jalen Green to exceed 25.5 Points on Monday night and will look to take that a few times this week.
On Monday night, Jock Landale likely will draw the start at Center, but Amen Thompson may lead the team in rebounds. Without Sengun, he has averaged 8.9 RPG with four double doubles in 7 games. Add in that Jabari is also missing and Amen should find success in this matchup. I'd consider his over 9.5 rebounds or over 26.5 PRA.
Brandon Ingram's Injury
Schedule: March 26 vs. Thunder | March 28 vs. Bucks | March 30 vs. Celtics
The Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram for the next few weeks and that directly impacts Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum.
Without BI, the duo of Zion and CJ see significantly upticks in usage. Without Ingram, McCollum averages 23.4 ppg, 5.1 RPG, and 5.1 apg, while Zion averages 21.5 ppg, 6.5 RPG, and 6.2 apg. They are each tasked with a greater facilitating responsibility and the offense runs through them as they find a bit more spacing with Trey Murphy but lose some of the self-creation that Ingram provides.
When Zion runs point, the team is extremely difficult to stop defensively because of the size mismatch he presents. The lineups are extremely long with a ton of size.
This week, the Pelicans have three very tough games against the Thunder, the Bucks, and the Celtics but all of them are at home. In his one game against the Thunder, Zion nearly recorded a triple double with 20 points, 10 boards, and 8 assists and his assists likely will be a play if it is set at 5.5 again.
The matchup against the Bucks may be difficult for the Pelicans. Their shot profile does not truly align with what Milwaukee tends to allow without Brandon Ingram. They may need a big game from McCollum in that spot.
In the game against the Celtics, Zion will be leaned on heavily for the size he can bring to the paint. But in that game, McCollum and Trey Murphy should find success from beyond the arc. While Boston is excellent defensively, they still allow 3s. On the flip side, New Orleans defends the 3 point line well despite allowing the second-highest frequency of 3s. Boston's offense and ability throughout the roster to score from deep will be invaluable. It should be a great matchup for Tatum but also decent for Sam Hauser as well.
