The NBA Trade Deadline is this Thursday and many teams are on the lookout to either upgrade for a playoff run or sell off assets and reset for the future. Let's dive into some of the biggest storylines and how to bet them.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
Joel Embiid's Knee
Schedule: Feb. 5 vs. Mavericks | Feb. 7 vs. Warriors | Feb. 9 vs. Hawks
The Philadelphia 76ers received more bad news regarding Joel Embiid when he was diagnosed with a displaced flap of the meniscus in his left knee, per the Athletic's Shams Charania.
Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid — the reigning NBA MVP — has been diagnosed with a displaced flap of the meniscus in his left knee and is weighing rest/rehab or a procedure, according to two sources.
Story at @TheAthletic with @joevardon: https://t.co/Fj99JlJV3v
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) February 3, 2024
This is a nuanced injury for a few reasons. One, he underwent a partial meniscectomy (removal) in the 2016-2017 season on this same knee. Additionally, the flap can cause the knee to lock and a surgical repair could have a 4-6 month recovery. A major issue is the way the injury is being described and that "a displaced flap is a tear [to the meniscus]… and are words often used to describe something that needs surgery."
On Sunday night, Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted that Embiid will undergo a procedure.
BREAKING: 76ers star Joel Embiid — the reigning MVP — will undergo a procedure this week to repair a left meniscus injury, a team official tells ESPN. A recovery timeline is expected after procedure, but expectation is that he will miss an extended period of time. pic.twitter.com/9c3ZqM7iT2
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) February 5, 2024
However, it is just as vague of a situation as before. Regardless, of the full season timeline, it certainly impacts the Sixers in the immediate.
Without Joel Embiid, the 76ers the team will be without the scoring leader (35.3), the EPM leader (+10.1), the #2 in BPM (11.9), and the #5 in VORP (4.1). The impact is significant.
Without Embiid on the floor, the player who you would expect to see the most natural uptick is Tyrese Maxey; however, it is not as significant as you'd expect.
Maxey sees his scoring climb from 25.8 ppg to 27.4 ppg but sees a decline in rebounds from 3.6 to 3.3 and assists from 6.8 to just 5.2. Additionally, with him being the primary focus of opposing defenses, it's easier to key in on him every single play.
Other players who should see changes in their production are Tobias Harris, Kelly Oubre, and Paul Reed. Here are their splits with and without Embiid:
Tobias Harris with: 33.8 minutes, 16.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks
Tobias Harris w/o: 34.6 mpg, 21.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.6 bpg
Kelly Oubre with: 26.3 mpg, 12.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.7 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.4 bpg
Kelly Oubre w/o: 32.6 mpg, 16.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.9 bpg
Paul Reed with: 12.6 mpg, 4.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.5 bpg
Paul Reed w/o: 25.1 mpg, 10.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.4 bpg
Paul Reed is someone you'd imagine would have a clean opportunity for more boards; however, in 14 games without Embiid he has double-digit boards in just three of them. On Monday, if Dereck Lively is unable to go against them, I'd target Richaun Holmes rebounding props in the matchup between the Sixers and the Mavericks. Reed's best opportunity for boards will come against the Warriors on Wednesday.
What Is Going On In Memphis?
Schedule: Feb. 6 at Knicks | Feb. 8 vs. Bulls | Feb. 10 at Hornets
The Memphis Grizzlies have been abysmal this season without Ja Morant and more recently without Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart. They are certainly a lottery team but the injury reports have been mind-numbing lately with just a handful of players even available on a nightly basis.
One thing to note, when these games are taking place, there still is plenty of opportunity; however, even in an expanded role, some of these players still should not be trusted to maintain any level of efficiency.
On Sunday, Jaren Jackson Jr. (hip), John Konchar (calf), Derrick Rose (hamstring), Vince Williams (wrist), Santi Aldama (tailbone), Xavier Tillman (knee), and Ziaire Williams (hand) were all out. This left the Grizzlies with a barren roster. This left the Grizzlies with a starting lineup of Jacob Gilyard, Luke Kennard, David Roddy, GG Jackson, and Trey Jemison. Not only did this result in a blowout victory for the Celtics, but none of these players performed particularly well.
It's an important lesson in player prop betting – just because there is opportunity, does not mean that it will be seized, and more likely than not, the players seeing the expanded role were limited for good reason before.
In this last game, the Grizzlies had an eFG% of just 44.0%. None of the starters grabbed double digit rebounds, and no player logged more than 6 assists (Gilyard).
One player to watch though is GG Jackson. He's a 2nd round rookie, and just earned his first start of the season. He took a whopping 24 shots including 10 3s but made just 8/24 and 2/10 en route to 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 turnovers. Jackson has seen his minutes climb lately, and in the 8 games he has played 20+ minutes, he has averaged 15.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.5 3s, and 1.5 turnovers.
Scotty Pippen Jr has also played well in a very limited capacity. He's averaging 12.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.6 turnovers in 24.5 minutes per game over his last 5 games. If the Grizzlies decide to go forward with a youth movement, Pippen could be someone that's actionable.
Regardless, the Grizzlies are going to get shredded by the New York Knicks on Tuesday night. I'll be looking for Brunson points and Isaiah Hartenstein rebounds. If OG Anunoby misses again it will be a great time to grab Josh Hart's rebounds prop as well.
