We are now in March and the NBA regular season is winding down but there is still plenty of basketball to take advantage of. Let's dive into this week's targets in the Player Props market.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
The Clippers Without Westbrook
Schedule: March 4 at Bucks | March 6 at Rockets | March 9 vs. Bulls
The Los Angeles Clippers received the news that Russell Westbrook broke a bone in his left hand when he played on Friday against the Wizards. He will be out for the foreseeable future as he recovers.
On Sunday, this meant more minutes for Terance Mann, Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, and Bones Hyland. With a back-to-back coming up against the Bucks on Monday, this is an opportunity for all of them. The player I expect to see the biggest role is Norman Powell, but Coffey and Bones could see a meaningful boost as well. If Harden, Kawhi, or Paul George sit in any games moving forward, there will be plenty of opportunity.
I expect Norman Powell to have a strong showing against the Bucks. In two games against the Bucks last year he scored 16 and 26 points, but the matchup is even better now. The Bucks have allowed big games to Devin Booker, Malik Monk, Bradley Beal and DeMar DeRozan this season from the Shooting Guard position. While Powell comes off the bench, he may see even more minutes with the back-to-back.
Westbrook's impact is muted a bit this year considering he is only averaging 22.6 minutes per game. However, his -10.3-point differential is one of the worst on the team. Without Westbrook, the Clippers' bench squad may see more success moving forward.
Are the Raptors Extinct? Finding Offense Without Scottie Barnes
Schedule: March 5 vs. Pelicans | March 7 at Suns | March 9 vs. Trail Blazers
The Raptors will be without Scottie Barnes who suffered a broken bone in his left hand. Barnes was enjoying an All-Star season and will be out indefinitely as Toronto continues their slide down the NBA standings.
Barnes leads the Raptors in Usage (25.8%) is second in scoring (19.9), second in rebounding (8.2), and first in assists (6.1). His absence creates a massive vacuum that needs to be filled.
The most natural replacement from a facilitating perspective is Immanuel Quickley. When IQ was with the Knicks, he would get promoted to the starting lineup if Jalen Brunson was unable to go. In those spots over the last two seasons, he averaged 25.8 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.8 rebounds in 14 games. He can take on an increased role as a scorer, rebounder, and facilitator.
Quickley got this opportunity on Sunday, and recorded 22 points, 11 assists, and 7 rebounds against the Hornets. His RA line opened at 10.5, and closed at a juiced 11.5. That's a prop to target moving forward; however, rebounds may be tougher to find against the Pelicans on Tuesday night and this could present us with good buy opportunities against the Suns and the Blazers. I'd consider his assists moving forward as well, especially against the Suns and the Blazers on Thursday and Saturday. One player that would cut into his Usage is Bruce Brown, who did not play on Sunday.
Steve Clifford made some comments after the game that the team allowed too many open 3s and layups in transition on Sunday. This bodes well for Raptors' opponents but the Pelicans, Suns, and Blazers do not use Transition opportunities frequently enough.
Victor Wembanyama – a True Alien
Schedule: March 5 at Rockets | March 7 at Kings | March 9 at Warriors
Victor has been unleashed and has been absolutely incredible on a nightly basis. Over his last 10 games he is averaging 23.3 points, 9.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 2.4 3s, 2.0 steals, 4.7 blocks, and 3.5 turnovers in 29.5 minutes per game. He's been a transcendent talent and is impacting the game on both sides of the floor.
How do you bet him though as his props have seemingly gotten out of control?
For example, his stocks prop was 5.5 last game (which still hit!) with a 1 steal and 6 block performance. I think there has been better value in the prop market if you're willing to get creative though. While he has exceeded 5.5 stocks in 7 of his last 10 games, I've found success in trading some of the flexibility for needing less volume. On Sunday, I bet in a Same-Game Parlay for Victor to record 1+ Steal and 3+ Blocks at (-130). This is not the first time I've done this either over the last few weeks. I did this because he has actually hit that line in 9 of his last 10 games. The trade off is that I was tying myself into needing those specific outcomes but I needed 2 fewer stats in order to cash. This is a SGP I'll be looking to run back on Tuesday.
This week, Wemby plays the Rockets, the Kings, and the Warriors and he has destroyed in all of these matchups. Against the Rockets he has a 21/12 games and a 15/18 games. Against the Kings, he has a 27/9 and a 19/13. The Warriors almost made him seem mortal with a 22/9 game. I'd expect more strong performances for the ROY favorite this week, and I'll be looking at his PR on Tuesday night.
