This week starts off with an MLK Day Celebration and plenty of games on a packed Monday Slate. Last week we crushed on Isaiah Hartenstein props, let's build on that momentum in this week's edition!
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
Joel Embiid's Anticipated Return
Schedule: Jan. 15 vs. Rockets | Jan. 16 vs. Nuggets | Jan. 19 at Magic
Joel Embiid (knee) practiced on Sunday and is listed as Questionable for Monday's game against the Rockets. The Sixers play the Rockets (Monday) then the Nuggets in the second game of a back-to-back on Tuesday, then the Magic (Friday), and the Hornets (Saturday) in another back-to-back. We'll see how the Sixers decide to work him back in, but it would not be overly surprising to see him only play in one game of each back-to-back set.
The game against the Nuggets is a matchup against Nikola Jokic and one I'm personally curious to see if Embiid will take on. Last season, they played just once and Embiid had a 47 point, 18 rebound, and 5 assist performance in a Sixers' victory; however, without James Harden, this is a tougher matchup.
Embiid has dominated this season. He is averaging 34.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He is leading the league in scoring and was the MVP favorite prior to missing time. His points line is set at 32.5 and this has been a tough matchup for Centers with only Nikola Jokic (38, 36, 32, 23) and Jaren Jackson Jr (44, 23, 22) scoring more than 30 points in a game. The game to target for Embiid is against the Hornets, he has scored 42, 38, and 53 in his last two seasons against them.
It's notable that Tyrese Maxey has actually fared better with Embiid than without him. Maxey sees a scoring uptick to 26.3 points, and racks up 6.9 assists per game compared to 25.2 points and 5.7 assists without Embiid. On the flip side, Tobias Harris sees a significant downturn in production and his stats without Embiid are 21.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists compared to 16.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game with Embiid.
LaMelo Back in Action (Again!)
Schedule: Jan. 17 st Pelicans | Jan. 19 vs. Spurs | Jan. 20 vs. 76ers
LaMelo Ball has returned from injury and played his first two games since November 26th. He is the clear best player on the Hornets and his stats are strong putting up 24.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game including 3.4 3s on 9.2 attempts per game. The team is not particularly good even with LaMelo; however, the offense improves and they are a much more captivating watch.
This week, LaMelo has a few advantageous schedule spots with matchups against the Pelicans, the Spurs, and the 76ers. When playing the Pelicans, his assists are a target; he logged 9 in each game against the Hornets last season and they have been on the receiving end of some strong assist performances this season from lead guards. Trae (12), Harden (13, 10), Cade (11), and Jamal Murray (9) all had strong assist performances against the Pelicans.
The Spurs are an elite Pace Up Spot. They have given up numerous double-digit assist games and big nights from beyond the arc as they allow their opponents to shoot 38.6% from deep. Those are two stats to target.
The Utah Jazz Finding a Groove
Schedule: Jan. 15 vs. Pacers | Jan. 17 at Warriors | Jan. 18 vs. Thunder
The Jazz have quietly been surging of late. The team is 12-3 over their last 15 games with losses to only the Celtics, the Pelicans, and the Cavaliers. They've found a rhythm of late and much of that centers around Lauri Markkanen. He is the team's best player and he has a +11.9 Point Differential on the season, per Cleaning the Glass.
Markkanen is averaging 24.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists with 3.2 3s per game over this stretch. He's been a force lately and now gets elite matchups this week against the Pacers and the Warriors. The Pacers are playing their second game in as many days and the Jazz should be able to control this game with the Pacers missing Tyrese Haliburton. Since he's joined the Jazz, Lauri has averaged 25.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game. I'd target a PR or just a rebounds prop in this spot on Monday.
As for the rest of the team, Collin Sexton has taken a step forward (20.4 points, 4.9 assists), Jordan Clarkson has returned to his elite 6th Man form (19.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.8 assists), and Khris Dunn has provided valuable defense off the bench averaging 1.3 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. All three of these players could take a step forward against the Pacers and the Warriors early this week. I'd look to target Dunn over 1.5 stocks and consider some looks on points for Sexton and Clarkson.
