The season is officially at the halfway mark! Let's dive into this week's edition of the Player Props Forecast and discuss a trade, a return from injury, and a new one-two punch formulating in the league.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
The Indiana Pacers' and the League's Newest Dynamic Duo
Schedule: Jan. 23 vs. Nuggets | Jan. 25 vs. 76ers | Jan. 26 vs. Suns
The Indiana Pacers completed their pursuit of Pascal Siakam and acquired him in a trade with the Toronto Raptors that sent Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, and three first-round picks to the Raptors in exchange for Pascal Siakam (and Kira Lewis).
The Pacers now have teamed up Siakam with All-Star Guard Tyrese Haliburton to form a dynamic duo as the Pacers look to secure a playoff berth this season in a competitive Eastern Conference. But let's look at the metrics and how these two should mesh together on the floor.
Haliburton (hamstring/injury management) missed Sunday's game against the Suns, but we do have one game to look at against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Pacers lost but it was a bit of a learning curve. Siakam recorded 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists; Haliburton had 21 points and 17 assists; Myles Turner had a 29-point, 12 rebound double-double with 6 3s; and Hield had 18 points on 6 3s.
Haliburton did not play on Sunday, and it resulted in a bizarre rotation from Coach Carlisle. Only Siakam (30), and Buddy Hield (31) played 30 minutes, McConnell and Myles Turner both started and played just 12 and 19 minutes respectively. The Pacers played Nesmith, Toppin, Nembhard, and Sheppard 20+ minutes and then Jalen Smith and Jarace Walker each played in the high teens, while Bennedict Mathurin saw just 14 minutes with 11 total players seeing double-digit minutes.
It's difficult to take away conclusions from games where Haliburton did not play, but it does seem as if Carlisle is attempting to figure out how it is best to surround Siakam. What I was surprised about on Sunday, was the Pacers simply did not take 3s with just 30% of their shots coming from deep. This was in stark contrast to their game on Friday when both Haliburton and Siakam played and 48% of their looks came from long range, per Cleaning the Glass. This is something I would expect to change moving forward and the team will look to continue shooting from distance.
A key here is spacing. With Haliburton, he is a spacing threat himself, but he also can generate great looks while finding the open man. This is also why it was stunning that Myles Turner, who drained six 3s on Friday played just 19 minutes against the Suns on Sunday. Siakam specifically mentioned that he wanted to play next to Myles Turner because of his ability to space the floor and was second only to Kevin Durant in players he'd want to play with, per the Athletic's Sam Amick.
This makes sense from a fit perspective to have Turner spaced on the perimeter to give Siakam more room to operate on the interior. While this did not work as well when Turner and Sabonis played together, Siakam has a better handle and ability to create for himself. I'd look to play Turner's 3s when Haliburton returns.
One notable comment from this Sunday's game was regarding Jarace Walker. Walker played 18 minutes but scored 10 points and pulled down 9 rebounds. Carlisle specifically highlighted that he was happy with that effort from the 3 position. Walker's points + rebounds could be a look moving forward.
Ultimately, this team lives and dies with Tyrese Haliburton. When Haliburton played on Friday his assists line was set at 11.5. That is a line he has cruised over in most games averaging 12.6 assists per game. He should continue to find success this week against the Nuggets, Sixers, Suns, and Grizzlies. He recorded 17 and 15 assists against the Sixers and 14 against the Grizzlies earlier this season. If we get 11.5 lines again, I'd take them.
A Bit More Magic in Orlando
Schedule: Jan. 22 vs. Cavs | Jan. 26 at Grizzlies | Jan. 28 vs. Suns
Franz Wagner returned for the Magic and was excellent in a 105-87 victory over the Heat on Sunday. Wagner tallied 19 points, 5 assists, and 2 rebounds in 28 minutes. He was also joined by Markelle Fultz who played 29 minutes and scored 12 points with 4 assists.
The Magic slipped without Wagner. They were 3-6 (counting the game he got hurt) in these games without him and their victories required herculean efforts by Paolo Banchero. With Franz back, it gives Orlando a chance to climb back up into the Top 6 in the East.
Wagner provided a well-rounded statistical profile for the Magic and averaged 20.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.9 assists. Interestingly enough, Paolo saw some spikes without Wagner, but overall his output was similar and alongside Franz he has averaged 22.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. Paolo saw modest upticks to 23.4 ppg and 5.6 apg without Franz. Matchups against the Cavaliers and the Grizzlies will be difficult for Paolo. I'd look for his points under in those matchups against Jarrett Allen and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Two players that saw their minutes slashed were Cole Anthony and Caleb Houstan. They played 16 and 8 minutes respectively, after playing 23.6 minutes and 26.5 minutes per game. This is partially due to the Magic missing some other players as well such as Fultz and Wendell Carter Jr; however, both players have taken significant hits to their Usage in the immediate. Of the two, Cole Anthony has a more realistic path to a meaningful role, especially if Fultz is moved prior to the deadline. That being said, when Fultz plays, Anthony sees his output drop from 14.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists to 9.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game.
