NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
It's getting down to the nitty gritty of the NBA season with less than a month away from the playoffs being underway. We have players returning to teams that in dire need of help and postseason positioned squads who need to make adjustments with injuries that take a hit to their roster. Let's get into what the scene is looking for the NBA player props forecast.
The Grizzlies coming out of Hibernation? Desmond Bane and JJJ Make Their Returns
Schedule: March 18 at Kings | March 20 at Warriors | March 22 at Spurs
The Memphis Grizzlies' season is over for all intents and purposes but they can see how their young players mesh with their veterans, namely, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Both Bane and JJJ returned from injury on Saturday against the Oklahoma City Thunder as they eased back into action. JJJ has been playing despite missing a few games but Bane played his first game since January 12th.
On the season, JJJ is averaging 22.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while Bane is averaging 24.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 3.3 3s per game. Bane's return is extremely meaningful for the team and he immediately returned to taking over the top Usage mark for the team (31.1%) with 22 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists and 4 3s in 32 minutes.
The Grizzlies have no back-to-backs this week and do not have any until April so we should expect both Bane and JJJ to play in their three games. The Grizzlies match up against the Kings, then the Warriors and the Spurs this week before a matchup with Denver next Monday.
I'm targeting Desmond Bane on Monday night against the Kings. The Kings allow the second-highest 3 point percentage to their opponents (40.2%) while playing at the 12th-Fastest Pace in the league. Bane's points is set at 21.5 and his 3s prop is currently set at 3+ (-145 FD); 4+ (+175); 5+ (+450) and I'm interested in that ladder opportunity. Bane has exceeded 21.5 points in 24/38 games and has 3+ 3s in 28/38 including 3/3 vs the Kings over the last two seasons. I like Bane to exceed his points and his 3s prop on Monday night. If you parlay 20+ points and 3+ 3s you can get (-101 FD) as well.
The biggest thing is the Grizzlies should be able to keep games more competitive now with Bane and JJJ. They have a -3.3 point differential with those two on the floor which is markedly better than the -8.9 point differential the Grizzlies had without those two (and Ja Morant), per Cleaning the Glass. We may see fewer blowouts which should help opponents keep their props in play.
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Keeping Pace without Bennedict Mathurin
Schedule: March 18 vs. Cavaliers | March 20 at Pistons | March 22 at Warriors
The Pacers will be without Bennedict Mathurin for the rest of the season as he recovers from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Without Mathurin, the Pacers will need to rely on a few other players to try and replicate his microwave scoring off the bench.
One of the primary beneficiaries of Mathurin's minutes is TJ McConnell. McConnell has elite efficiency and is averaging 9.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.1 steals while playing just 18 minutes per game this season. In 7 games without Mathurin, McConnell has seen his scoring rise to 12.0 ppg but he has had a slight hit to his assists at 3.7.
Another player who has had success without Mathurin is Andrew Nembhard. Nembhard has averaged 9.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4.0 assists without Mathurin on the season. He's averaged 7.2 RA per game and his RA prop is set at 5.5 He's exceeded that in 6/9 games with two consecutive misses at 5. Although this is a tougher matchup against the Cavaliers on Monday, it's a spot he still could succeed. The best matchups are further along the week against the Pistons, the Warriors, and the Lakers.
As an aside, one player that has struggled a bit after the All-Star Break is Tyrese Haliburton. Hali has averaged just 15.9 points, 9.7 assists, and 3.9 rebounds after the All-Star Break with "just" seven Double Doubles compared to 21.8 points, 11.7 assists, and 3.9 rebounds before the Break. His assists line is set at just 10.5 on Monday, a number he has exceeded in 6/12 games post-ASB and 4/5 against the Cavaliers. Both games against Cleveland this season he logged 13 assists but that was back on October 28th and November 3rd. The Cavaliers just allowed a 16-assist game to Fred VanVleet and 14 to Luka, and Haliburton certainly could replicate those performances on Monday night.
