February's NBA action starts with a rematch between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics, and I'm seeing a good buy-low opportunity on a Jaylen Brown player prop. I will also explain why it makes sense to pair that prop with a Celtics victory.
Brown's shooting percentage is 7.3% better at home than on the road. He makes an average of 2.3 3-pointers per game and has made at least two 3-pointers in 15 of 23 home games (65%).
From a shot quality and volume standpoint, Brown takes 81% of his 3s above the break, and I will attribute Brown's recent shooting slump (1-for-10 from 3) more to the matchups than his shooting form. After all, the Celtics just played the Pacers and Clippers, both teams that rank in the top 10 when it comes to limiting above-the-break shot frequency.
However, I see Brown's luck changing against the Lakers. Brown had five attempts in their previous meeting, despite playing just three minutes in second quarter (foul trouble). I find it likely that Brown will see similar volume against a 3-point funnel defense as the Lakers allow the third-most 3-point attempts (30.2) above the break.
To get better odds, it makes sense to parlay Brown making two or more 3s with the Celtics moneyline. The Celtics are priced as double-digit favorites and have won 22 of 24 home games this season. Meanwhile, the Lakers, who played below .500 basketball in January, are resting both LeBron James and Anthony Davis tonight.
