NBA Player Prop Picks Today | Expert Bets for Sunday, Dec. 31
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
The last NBA slate of the 2023 calendar year has five games on the docket. There are two NBA players props today that stand out from those games as my expert bets. Tonight, I'll be targeting Devin Booker and Keegan Murray.
Magic vs. Suns
Devin Booker
Under 7.5 Assists (-120)
The best player prop in our prop model is Devin Booker Under 7.5 assists, which is prized at -120 at DraftKings. Booker has gone under this line in four of his past five games and is projected for only six assists. The Suns are finally healthy with their trio of Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal and this will be just their fourth game together.
Booker draws a very difficult matchup against a Magic defense that is tied for the second-best defensive rating in the league at 110.4. Orlando is allowing only 110.6 points and a league-best 23.3 assists per game this season. Magic guard Jalen Suggs, who will guard Booker, is second in the league among guards with a 1.62 defensive real plus/minus. Suggs is averaging 1.6 steals per game and will do his best to make Booker's job very difficult tonight.
Throughout his career, Booker is only averaging 4.9 assists per game. His peripherals have spiked this year while serving as the Suns' point guard, but his assists prop is getting a little too high. Despite being one of four Western Conference teams with a losing record at home, the Suns are favored by 5.5-points in this matchup.
This line could potentially drop to 6.5 assists with juice on the under. I don't mind grabbing the value at DraftKings now and sprinkling on his under 6.5 assists if it drops. The Suns play at the fourth-slowest pace in the league with most of their possessions coming in isolation. Take Booker's under in this matchup.
Pick: Devin Booker Under 7.5 Assists (-120)
Kings vs. Grizzlies
Keegan Murray
Over 13.5 Points (-130)
Keegan Murray's points prop is the second prop that stands out among the rest in our model. He is projected to score 17 points tonight, which is well over his 13.5 points prop at FanDuel. Other books have his point prop at 14.5 with better odds, which is also intriguing. This is a great matchup for the sharpshooter, who is averaging a career-high 15.5 points per game this season. He is attempting 3.1 more field goals this year than last.
Murray's 3-point prop of over 2.5 3-pointers made is also popping as a great value. He has made three or more 3-pointers in five of his past seven games. However, sticking with his over points prop is much safer. Murray has scored 14+ points in seven of his past 10 games and ranks third in scoring behind De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.
The Kings are one-point road favorites against the Grizzlies, who look night and day better with Ja Morant in the lineup. They are also playing at a faster pace, which bodes well for Murray, who gets a ton of open looks in transition. The Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shoot 38.5% from long distance, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Whether it is in transition or in the half court, Murray will get his looks. He has attempted double-digit field goals in 23 of 26 games this season. Murray has shot 6-for-23 from the field and 2-for-13 from behind the arc in his past two games. Expect a bounce back performance in this fantastic matchup.
Pick: Keegan Murray Over 13.5 Points (-130)
