NBA Player Prop Pick
| Prop | Zach LaVine Over 27.5 Points (-125) |
| Matchup | Kings vs. Bulls |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
The Sacramento Kings and the Chicago Bulls will play their second game of the season in the Windy City. Unlike last year, both offenses have a lot on the line to play for, which means I expect a competitive atmosphere.
With a game total sitting at 237.5, I'm having a tough time seeing the Kings slow down Zach LaVine and his recent scoring explosion tonight.
Compared to his 24.9 points per game average, LaVine is averaging 35 points per game in March, scoring at least 29 in four of his last five games. The Bulls guard has found his rhythm amid early season struggles, as his usage rate (3.8% increase) continues to climb while sharing the backcourt with Patrick Beverley and Alex Caruso.
There appears to be a dynamic shift in the most recent eight-game sample alongside Beverley. Since the acquisition, the gap between LaVine and his co-star DeMar DeRozan’s volume has noticeably widened. LaVine is averaging 19.6 field goals attempted (18.0 season average), compared to DeRozan’s 16.3 field goals (17.8 season average).
As for the matchup, LaVine scored 41 points against the Kings earlier this season. It’s a substantial pace-up spot for Chicago. Sacramento is third in pace (102.43) since the All-Star break, while the Bulls sit 30th (94.94), creating an appealing 7.49 difference for extra possessions.
Additionally, it does not help that the Kings are playing lousy defense.
Since the break, Sacramento owns the second-worst defensive rating (120.5) while allowing the 10th-most points in the paint (52.4) and second most 3-pointers made per game (15.5).
Oddsmakers gave the Bulls a 118 implied team total, so expect a lot of firepower from the team tonight. LaVine will need to score 30 or more points to keep up with the Kings, making me love his chances of going over his points prop tonight.
Pick: Zach LaVine Over 27.5 Points (-125) | Bet to 28.5
Pick: Zach LaVine Over 28.5 Points (-111) |
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