NBA Player Prop Pick
Below you'll find Prop Bomb's top NBA player prop pick from Heat vs. Raptors on Wednesday, December 6 highlighting Raptors forward Pascal Siakam.
| Prop | Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 Points (-120) |
| Matchup | Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Heat vs. Raptors
Pascal Siakam
Over 20.5 Points (-120)
While he still finds his shooting touch, Pascal Siakam has been the most consistent player for the Raptors offense, especially at home in Toronto. He averaged 23.1 points per game at home in November as he scored at least 21 points in five of the seven games.
Tonight, he will face the Miami Heat, a team he has historically performed well against. Last season, Siakam averaged 24.0 points per game in their three meetings while exceeding his points prop each time.
But the matchup gets an even more favorable boost now for Siakam because of Bam Adebayo's absence. Adebayo has missed three of the Heat's last six games and only played in 12 minutes of another one of those games. Over that six-game span, the Heat have missed his rim presence as they have fallen from allowing the 15th-most points in the paint (49.8) to the fourth-most points in the paint per game (57.3).
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This should benefit Siakam because he excels as a scorer when he can drive and get to the bucket. His Effective Field Goal Percentage is an impressive 63.6%, and most of his points (68.4%) come from inside 10 feet.
In games where the opposing team ranks in the bottom 10 in points allowed in the paint, Siakam averages 22.8 points per game. He enters this matchup with momentum as he has scored at least 23 points in four out of five games, including 39 against Washington, 36 against Indiana, 31 against Dallas and 23 against Detroit.
Put it all together, and this is a fantastic matchup where he can dominate by scoring points closer to the rim. With Orlando Robinson and Kevin Love serving as the Heat's rim protectors in Adebayo's absence, I am confident Siakam will exceed his points prop tonight.
Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)
