NBA Player Prop & Pick
| Prop | Jordan Poole Over 3.5 Turnover (-120) |
| Matchup | Thunder vs. Warriors |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
While Jordan Poole continues to take strides in the scoring department averaging 20.5 points per contest (career-best) on 30.5 minutes per game, the biggest flaw in his game continues to be his carelessness and decision-making on the court.
This season, the fourth-year pro has seen his turnovers per 36 minutes rise from 2.95 to 3.99, fourth-highest amongst all active players in a minimum of 30 games.
The Golden State Warriors will have to adjust to life without Stephen Curry for the time being, as the star expects to miss multiple weeks with a lower leg injury. As a result, Poole should replace him in the starting lineup, and it should come with a bump in both minutes and usage rate.
In the fifteen games this season without Curry, Jordan Poole saw a 36.5 Usage Rate (9.8% increase) and averaged 4.9 turnovers per game. Poole had at least four turnovers in 13 of those 15 games.
One thing to note is that Andrew Wiggins was part of one of the fifteen games in this sample size, but per CourtIQ, Poole’s usage rate and turnovers with Wiggins active stays the same.
The matchup could not have been any better to amplify this prop, as Oklahoma City has been stingy all season, forcing the most turnovers (16.7) amongst all teams in the league. Curry and Poole combined for six turnovers versus this team just last week, but now the ball should be in Poole’s hands this go around as the difference.
With a tight spread (Warriors -4) against a competitive Thunder team, I see an edge in Poole’s turnover prop. Thanks to his consistent hit rate of playing erratic without Curry, I love his chances of going over this prop and would take this up to -135.
