NBA Player Prop Pick | Thursday, Jan. 18
Today marks a new era in Toronto now that long-time forward Pascal Siakam is off the books and shipped to Indiana. Newly acquired guard Immanuel Quickley has thrived on his new team by bringing much-needed offensive firepower to the starting lineup. But even with his recent success, I'm looking to fade his prop tonight.
Quickley is averaging 18.7 points per game in his nine games with the Raptors, eclipsing this prop in five of his nine games. During this stretch, he's shooting almost 6% better from downtown than his season average of 41.5%.
But even with a likely elevated offensive role without Siakam, this line is too inflated, especially considering the matchup. For starters, it's a back-to-back for the Raptors, and in seven games played with zero days of rest, Quickley is shooting under 18% from downtown.
And tonight's production won't come easy for the Kentucky product. Quickley scores 27% of his points via the pick-and-roll play, which is by far the most of any Raptor in the lineup. Not only are the Bulls the NBA's slowest team in pace and surrender the least amount of points per game to his position, but they have also allowed the fewest points per game to opposing pick-and-roll ball handlers.
Quickley figures to draw matchups most of the time against Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams, both of whom are in the 87th percentile of defensive plus-minus. With big man Nikola Vucevic manning the middle and playing up-front on the defender, the Bulls' pick-and-roll defense takes away the mid-range shot, which is where Quickley takes 36% of his field goal attempts.
Given the slow-pace environment combined with Quickley's dominant play type, as well as the rest disadvantage going in and the added focus on defense without Siakam, it is unlikely that the former Knick will exceed 20 points tonight.
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