NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets on Friday (April 19)

I have three NBA picks today for the Bulls vs. Heat and Kings vs. Pelicans Play-In games tonight. Check out my top NBA player prop bets from the Play-In Tournament below.

NBA Player Prop Picks

In the table below, you'll find each of our NBA staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Chris Raybon

In theory, Jimmy Butler’s absence should be a boon to Caleb Martin’s scoring due to a minutes increase and Butler’s 24.0% Usage Rate up for grabs, but Martin has found it tougher to get in the flow of the offense when Butler is off the floor and the Heat play through Tyler Herro.

With Butler on the floor, Martin averages 13.5 points per 36 minutes compared to 12.6 with Butler off, but the real disparity comes when we look at Martin’s minutes with Butler off the floor and Herro on. In those minutes, Martin dips to 10.2 points/36, with his field goal attempts/36 decreasing by 3.2 and his 3-point attempts/36 decreasing by 0.9.

If we look at minutes with Herro and Bam Adebayo on while Butler and Terry Rozier (who is out of this game with a neck injury) are off, Martin dips to 9.1 points/36.

Martin has seen across the board dips in his shooting percentages this season compared to last, with much of that due to a thumb injury suffered on Feb. 29 that will require surgery after the season. Since the injury, Martin is shooting just 39.8% from the field and 32.0% from deep. Martin is averaging 29.5 minutes as a starter, but even if he plays minutes in the high 30s, he is still a good bet to go under 11.5.

On the season, Martin has been held under 12 points in 64.7% games overall and 62.5% as a starter.

Pick: Caleb Martin Under 11.5 Points (-115 | Bet to 10.5)

By Chris Raybon

Despite entering the season having made eight 3s on 62 career attempts, Adebayo woke up one day and decided he was going to shoot 3s. He made only 1-of-11 prior to the All-Star Break, but he’s been on a tear since, knocking down 14 of his 31 attempts from deep (45.2%) and making at least one in 11 of 27 games, or 40.7%, over that span.

From that vantage point, Adebayo’s listed odds of not making a 3 seem right on the money. Our good friend regression to the mean has something to say about that, though.

Remember, even if we only use Adebayo’s 27-game post-All-Star-Break sample featuring a marked increase in attempts (from 0.24 per game to 1.15 per game), he’s still failing to make a 3 60% of the time despite shooting over 45% during that span.

For some perspective, even Steph Curry, a 42.6% career shooter from deep, would be expected to regress from 45%; even with his recent hot stretch, Adebayo is still a 22.1% career shooter from deep, meaning he’d be expected to make about half as many 3s as he actually made since the break.

On the season, Adebayo has made a three in 12-of-72 games, or 17%. Even if he made 3s at a league-average clip (36.6%) and we use only his post-All-Star-Break attempt rate, he’d still be expected to make a three in only 33% of his games. If you bet the under, and he makes one, it will be soul-crushing, but this number should be at least -200.

(For those curious, the absence of Butler doesn’t cause Adebayo to become more assertive from downtown: His 3-point attempt rate slightly decreases with Butler off the floor).

Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-128 | Bet to -200)

By Chris Raybon

The Kings are 0-5 against the Pelicans – including a 133-100 loss in the lone game Zion Williamson missed in the series – and are averaging 109.0 points per game against New Orleans compared to 117.1 against the rest of the league.

Even without Williamson, big and physical teams like the Pelicans can still give the Kings problems on both ends of the court. The Kings’ decreased efficiency as a whole has unsurprisingly led to a dip in their point guard’s assist totals, with teammates converting just 41.2% of Fox’s potential assists against New Orleans compared to 53.1% against all others, per NBA.com’s Player Tracking data. Fox has topped five assists only once in five games against the Pelicans and is averaging 4.2 dimes in 34.6 minutes per game across the five meetings.

Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado have been particularly stifling to Fox as a playmaker, with Fox posting three assists to five turnovers when guarded by Jones and one assist to four turnovers when guarded by Alvarado, according to NBA.com Player Tracking.

Fox also tends to take matters into his own hands on the road, becoming more of a scorer and less of a facilitator. At home, Fox is averaging 25.0 points on a 30.2% Usage Rate with 6.4 assists, but on the road, he’s averaging 28.2 points on a 32.1% Usage Rate with only 4.9 assists per game.

On the season, Fox has recorded seven or more assists in 18 of 39 home games (46.1%) but only eight of 36 road games (22.2%). Even if we look only at the 18 road games in which Fox played at least 36 minutes, he has reached seven assists just five times, or 27.8%, and has reached six assists just eight times, or 44.4%.

Pick: De'Aaron Fox Under 6.5 Assists (-122 | Bet to 5.5 at -125)