The NBA regular season continues on Sunday with a six-game slate. Our experts have a pair of best bets ready for the Brooklyn Nets vs. Denver Nuggets matchup. Find their picks and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Nets vs. Nuggets Total
Chris Baker: This total has been bet down from its open at 232, but I expect there to be lots of points in Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Nuggets are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Spurs, and I expect them to come out with urgency on both ends. Their offense should be running off of misses, and they are virtually unstoppable when they push the ball in transition, ranking third in the NBA in Transition Offensive Rating.
Since trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the Nets have gone 6-7 despite ranking just 24th in Net Rating. They are 14th in Defensive Rating and 26th in Offensive Rating over that 13 game stretch, but this is a difficult matchup for their defense. The Nets have been open about their newfound obsession with winning the “Math” game, as they have prioritized limiting opponent 3s and getting up 3s themselves on offense. Brooklyn’s defense ranks third-best in the NBA at limiting 3-pointers but just 23rd in Rim-Rate Allowed.
The Nuggets are perfectly fine taking midrange shots and diving to the rim as they rank seventh in Rim Rate on the year on offense. Nic Claxton is the foundation of this defense, but I don’t really love this matchup for him as Jokic has a significant weight/strength advantage on him. If the Nets are forced to bring help/doubles, I expect their rotations to be poor as this team is still getting familiar with each other and the defensive rotations.
On the other end, the Nets have been launching 3s at will, ranking sixth in 3-point Attempt Rate (41.1%) since the trades. Denver has been league-average defending the 3-pointer, ranking 16th in opponent 3-point Attempt Rate Allowed. I expect the Nets to have some success from deep tonight as these teams clear this 230 total. Play this up to 231.5.
Pick: Over 230.5 (play to 231.5) |
Nets vs. Nuggets Total
Jacob McKenna: This matchup features a struggling Denver offense and a stellar Brooklyn defense, but I believe that this is a good spot for the over.
Despite great defensive play this month, Brooklyn opponents have scored at least 118 points in three of the Nets' six games. Denver is in a similar position, surrendering an average of 119.3 points per game across the last three games.
Additionally, according to TeamRankings, the over has been great for both of these teams when playing a non-conference opponent. The over is 14-8 when the Nuggets play a team from the East and 12-10-1 when the Nets play a team from the West.
I think those trends are in a favorable position to continue this afternoon, and I'd play this total to 232.
Pick: Over 230.5 (play to 232) |
