The NBA regular season continues on Tuesday night with a 10-game slate. TNT features a doubleheader tonight, and one of our analysts is targeting the total in the first matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies. We also have another best bet in the Western Conference for the Kings vs. Thunder matchup. Find the Action Network NBA staff's best bets and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Total
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: Both the Lakers and Grizzlies have been playing great defensively, but they have also struggled with efficiency on offense. The Grizzlies are 18th in Offensive Rating in the last five games (114) while the Lakers are 21st (112.4), and both are in the bottom third in Effective Field Goal Percentage (53% and 52.4%, respectively).
Consequently, the stats have followed suit. In the last 15 Grizzlies games, the total has gone over just three times. Only one game has gone over in their last seven home games while five of the last six Lakers games have also gone under.
The under trend continues when we look at the head-to-head matchup for these teams. They played once already this season in LA, and that game went under the total. Tonight's game will be in Memphis, where the last five straight games have gone under in addition to 13 of the last 16 matchups between the two squads.
I have this projected at 228 without James, and I’d play the under down to 229.5.
Pick: Under 230.5 |
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Kings vs. Thunder Total
Chris Baker: These teams combined for 239 points on Sunday in a 124-115 Kings victory, but I like them to fall under the number this time around.
Both teams shot above average from the field and from the 3-point line on Sunday. The Kings had an Effective Field Goal percentage of 63.5% (89th percentile) as they shot 42% from deep and 77.3% at the rim (82nd percentile). The Thunder also shot the ball well as they had a 65th percentile Effective Field Goal percentage and exceeded 40% from 3.
The Kings had multiple players shoot well off the bench like Terence Davis, Trey Lyles and Malik Monk. Each of these players shot above 50% from 3 and combined to shoot 9/14 (64%) from deep. I expect some regression in the Kings' shooting numbers given this is the second game of this mini-series. These teams should be more familiar with each other, and the Thunder should do a better job of staying attached to shooters.
I also expect the Kings to regress on the offensive glass because they rebounded 33% of their missed shots (77th percentile), according to Cleaning the Glass. The Kings prioritize transition defense, and as a result, they rank just 24th in Offensive Rebounding Rate on the year. I expect the Thunder to do a better job of finishing possessions tonight.
Additionally, this Kings offense may be slightly overrated right now as they have played the single easiest schedule of opposing defenses this season, according to dunksandthrees.com. This Thunder defense is definitely legitimate and capable of causing some issues for this Kings offense, especially with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out once again.
Gilgeous-Alexander has had an unbelievable offensive season, but the Thunder defense gets markedly better with him off the floor. The Thunder have a Defensive Rating of 115.2 (44th percentile) with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor and a Defensive Rating of 111.7 (78th percentile) with him off the floor. Factor those defensive splits in with the fact that the Thunder offense gets 9.5 points worse with Shai off the floor, and I expect the Thunder to do their part for this under.
Finally, it's possible for De’Aaron Fox to sit this game due to injury. Similar to Gilgeous-Alexander, the Kings offense gets markedly worse without Fox while their defense gets substantially better, so that would be a huge boon for this under. Take the under at 235.5 and play this down to 234.
Pick: Under 235.5 |
