The NBA has one last day of basketball before the All-Star break, and our Action Network NBA betting experts have you covered with best bets for all three games tonight. Andrew O'Connor-Watts has a total bet for Bucks vs. Bulls, Joe Dellera has a player prop bet for Wizards vs. Timberwolves, and Chris Baker has a spread pick for Clippers vs. Suns. Find their picks and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Bucks vs. Bulls Total
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I gave out the Bucks in my writeup for this game, but the under is an equally appealing as well.
It can be tricky betting NBA right before the All-Star weekend with teams’ motivation in question before the break. That said, there are a few reasons I like the under.
As bad as the Bulls have been lately (0-5 straight up and ATS), it hasn’t been for lack of defense. During their losing streak, the Bulls have a 107.4 Defensive Rating, which is third-best over the last five games. The Bucks are right behind them at 108.1.
Additionally, now that Khris Middleton has been ruled out, I like the under even more.
The issue for the Bulls has been their offense. During their five-game losing streak, they have the worst Offensive Rating in the league (98.4), and the under is 4-1. But even if we look further back to when the Bulls were playing better, the under trend still dominates. In Chicago’s last 20 games, the under is 14-6.
Despite both meetings going over this year, if we look at the previous 15 meetings, the under is 12-3.
A big reason for that heavy trend is the success rate of divisional unders, which can be chalked up to teams playing each other more often and giving them a familiarity with the opposing offense:
Take the under down to 227.
Wizards vs. Timberwolves Player Prop
Joe Dellera: Mike Conley was shipped to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the three-team trade that sent Russell Westbrook to Utah and D’Angelo Russell to the Lakers.
Conley was a solid addition to the Timberwolves because of his pass-first mentality, and he is averaging 7.6 assists this season, which mimics his average of 7.7 assists from last season. Speaking of last season, Conley and Rudy Gobert have chemistry from their time back in Utah. In his two games since being traded, he has passed to Rudy Gobert 14% of the time, which has resulted in 1.5 assists per game to Gobert. The lob threat is being unlocked for Minnesota.
Conley has exceeded this line in 30/45 games this season, and I like him to keep this good synergy going tonight against the Wizards as a true facilitator for the Minnesota offense.
Clippers vs. Suns Spread
Chris Baker: With Kevin Durant out of the lineup, I have this line closer to Clippers -2.5, so I will gladly take the Clippers at plus-money in this spot.
The Clippers have struggled with consistency all year long, but with Kawhi Leonard on the floor, this team is genuinely still a top-10 team. With Leonard on the floor, the Clippers have a +8.1 Net Rating (92nd percentile). Leonard is the difference maker for this team, and he is expected to go tonight.
I also like the Clippers because of the poor defensive shooting luck they have experienced over these past two weeks. Opponents have shot above 43% from 3 in seven of their last eight games. Those numbers aren't representative of how strong this Clippers defense is, and we can and should expect them to positively regress against this Suns offense. The Suns are devoid of consistent 3-point shooters as they have just one healthy player shooting above 40% from 3 (Damion Lee).
Since trading away Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges, the Suns have been forced to turn to players like Josh Okogie and Ish Wainwright for minutes at the wing position. Both of them shoot sub-35% from 3, so I don’t expect the Suns to punish the Clippers from behind the arc.
Additionally, the Clippers now have a plethora of capable defensive centers in Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee who can defend Deandre Ayton down low. The Clippers are also perfectly equipped to switch most screens and force Devin Booker and Chris Paul into tough midrange shots. Terrence Mann, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard should cause issues for the Suns offense due to their length and athleticism.
Finally, the Clippers' addition of Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland and Plumlee to their bench unit will be notable due to the current lack of depth on this Suns team. The Suns just aren’t playing guys who I view as replacement-level rotation players right now, and the Clippers have about 10 guys who should be considered that. The lack of depth for the Suns will hurt them against this deep Clippers team, so grab the Clippers at +1 (-110) and play them up to -130 on the moneyline.
