The NBA week tips off with nine games on Monday, including seven games that will start between 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET.
In honor of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the annual NBA on TNT feature games in Atlanta (Heat vs. Hawks, 3:30 ET) and Memphis (Suns vs. Grizzlies, 6 p.m. ET), two cities that are instrumental to the life and legacy of Dr. King, will anchor the slate.
Three of our best bets for Monday come from another game on the slate, though, with a player prop, spread bet and team total. Read on for our expert picks and predictions for Monday's slate.
NBA Odds & Picks
Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks
Joe Dellera: The Knicks host the Raptors today and even though it’s a back-to-back for NY, I think Brunson should excel.
In two prior meetings against the Raptors, Brunson was a great facilitator – with 12 and eight assists in each of the matchups. He’s averaging 6.4 assists per game on the season but it’s a particularly good matchup here because the Raptors like to swarm the ball handler and force the ball out of their hands.
Brunson averages 59 passes made per game for 12.4 potentials per game – against the Raptors? This number jumps to 65 passes made per game for 15.5 potential assists. I like him to drop some dimes today and FanDuel has the best vig on his 6.5 total.
I’ll sprinkle Double Double at +575 on DraftKings too.
Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks
Chris Baker: They Raptors cleared this line in one of their two games against the Knicks this season despite shooting awfully in each game. The one game they missed they landed right on 108 despite shooting 42% from the field.
They have shot below the 30th percentile in Effective Field Goal percentage in each game and sub-36% from deep in both games. They also did a good job of generating looks at the rim in each game as they have attempted about 36% of their shots at the rim vs the Knicks this season.
I think this Raptors offense is poised for some positive regression as they have played the seventh-most difficult schedule of opposing defenses thus far. They also haven’t been consistently healthy to get continuity with each other. When Fred Vanvleet, Gary Trent Jr., Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby are on the floor together this team is averaging a respectable 116.7 points per 100 possessions.
This team has offensive potential when healthy and this is an excellent matchup for them as they get to go against a Knicks defense that ranks 19th in defensive rebound rate. The Raptors are fifth in offensive rebound rate so expect them to consistently generate second chance opportunities.
Finally, this is a great spot for them to come out hot against a Knicks team that had to fly back from Detroit yesterday and is on the second game of a back-to-back. I expect the Knicks defense to be a bit more lackadaisical than normal and that should allow the Raptors to generate some easy looks.
Trust the Raptors offense to show up here and clear the 108.5 number.
Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks
Matt Moore: This line opened at Heat -1 and is moving toward Miami, but I'm going the other way here.
Don’t get me wrong, I hate betting the Hawks. It’s painful. But the difference in these two teams in Net Rating is 1.5. That’s not what determines a line but my numbers make this Hawks -1.5 in Atlanta.
The Heat have played better as of late, winning six of their past eight games and going 5-2-1 ATS in that span. Here’s who the wins were against: The Utah Jazz, who are terrible as a home favorite, the Los Angeles Clippers without Kawhi Leonard (who aren’t that impressive with him), the Zombie Phoenix Suns, the Brooklyn Nets ( a good win) and the Milwaukee Bucks twice without Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Miami probably hasn’t turned the corner as much as bettors would like to think they have, so I’ll play the moneyline return at the best price I find with the home team.
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Austin Wang: Two division rivals with contrasting styles collide on Martin Luther King Day. The Heat are 23rd in Offensive Rating, eighth in Defensive Rating and 28th in Pace, per NBA Advanced Stats.
Their games have gone 9-2 to the under as road favorites. In addition, they dictate the game-flow against fast-paced teams with their grind-it-out style of play – they are 14-8 to the under against teams that play at a faster pace than the league average, per the SDQL at Gimme the Dog.
The Hawks play at a fast tempo, but they lack efficiency on offense. They are 22nd in Offensive Rating, which will not fare well against the tough-nosed Heat defense. Their games have gone under in five of their previous six games. The emergence of big man Onyeka Okongwu has really give them a boost on the defensive side of the ball. In January, their Defensive Rating is 11th in the league.
Day games usually trend to the under as teams struggle to find their footing on offense when these games start earlier than normal. I make my projections on this game 220 and would play this down to 221.
