Welcome to a new week as we open up Monday, March 11 with a six-game slate that includes an NBA TV doubleheader. You should already know that our NBA betting experts are prepared with seven NBA best bets for you.
With four player prop bets for tonight’s slate, plus more in our NBA picks for Sunday, including three spread picks for Raptors vs. Nuggets and Mavericks vs. Bulls.
Get the full scoop on our NBA best bets for today below.
NBA Odds, Best Bets Today
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Raptors vs. Nuggets
By Matt Moore
The Raptors are a rough watch without Scottie Barnes. They're 1-3 ATS since the dynamic young forward went down. They're on the road in altitude without their best player and starting center (Jakob Poeltl), and RJ Barrett is questionable. It's not a great spot. But this is more about Denver. Before we hit the Nuggets' position, though: the Raptors lost to the Blazers. Since 2018-19, teams who lost on the road to opponents with a win percentage below 30 percent and are road dogs are 79-63-2 ATS (56%). The idea is that after you lose to a truly miserable team, even if you're a road dog the next game, you play a little better.
Now on the Denver side: they just finished a brutal post-All-Star stretch that concluded with an impressive win over the best team in the league, the Boston Celtics. They then jumped on top of the hapless Utah Jazz, leading by as many as 39 Saturday night. But then a funny thing happened. The Jazz stormed back behind a 44-point 3rd quarter and cut the lead all the way to 15. Denver got bored and started messing around, but was up by enough for them to stabilize and win by 20.
Under Michael Malone, the Nuggets are 31-49 (39%) ATS after leading by more than 25 in the previous game. The letdown effect is real. Denver is 5-6-1 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite.
Denver is very likely to let down here, while Toronto has plenty of motivation after an embarrassing loss to Portland. I'll take the 13.5, as I have this projected at 11.5.
Pick: Raptors +13.5
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Mavericks vs. Bulls
By Joe Dellera
The Bulls take on the Mavericks on Monday and one matchup to target is Nikola Vucevic.
The Bulls have been running more double big lineups with Andre Drummond; however, this is not the matchup for that. Drummond is not in a good matchup here to defend Luka and I do not envision the Bulls making that decision. They’ve generally deployed the dual big lineup against other bigger teams.
Vucevic has been solid on this line ever since Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams went down with injury. In 18 games without the two of them,
Vucevic is averaging 31.8 PR but he has exceeded this line in 61% of games. He had a few down games that are pulling down the averages. Vucevic has a strong matchup against either Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively. Gafford cannot keep up with Vuc’s ability to stretch the floor and Lively is not skilled enough as a rebounder or a defender to contain him.
I like Vucevic to exceed 32.5 PR tonight.
Pick: Nikola Vucevic over 32.5 PR
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Mavericks vs. Bulls
I'm leaning on one of my crutches in a favorable match-up. Ayo Dosunmu over PRA has been a favorite of mine since his emergence following Zach LaVine's injury.
Dosunmu is over 22.5 PRA in 11 of his last 17 games, and this is somewhat of a buy low opportunity as he's down to 22.5 after going under his PRA twice in three games.
But tonight, he has a favorable match-up against the Dallas Mavericks, and while their interior is strengthened, Dosunmu's been a marksman from the perimeter, hitting 44 percent on six threes per game during this stretch, and is also just above 50 percent from the field on 12 attempts.
Pick: Ayo Dosunmu over 22.5 pts + rebs + ast (-110)
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Raptors vs. Nuggets
By Jim Turvey
We keep waiting for the Denver Nuggets to downshift into cruise control this season, but it hasn't happened yet, at least. Any evidence of it to come has certainly not appeared in the first quarters of games, where the Nuggets are absolutely boat racing teams yet again in 2023-24.
Their first quarter net rating of +13.0 trails only Boston this season, and this is far from some new trend. Since the start of the Jokic Era, the Nuggets have manhandled teams in the first 12:00, especially when they're at home. Their first quarter net rating at home this season is an even more impressive +21.9 net rating.
It's no surprise that they have a 23-9 ATS record in home first quarters this season, though it is indeed impressive. They draw a perfect opponent to push around in that regard on Monday, as the Raptors are the second-worst ATS team in first quarters this season 25-38-1, and that number is the same on the road (11-20-1). Their first quarter net rating ranks 23rd in the league at -6.9, and on the road they drop down to 27th (-14.4).
The spread is a big one in part because these Raptors are also now without their best player this season in Scottie Barnes, but it's hard to make these first quarter spreads are wide as they need to be.
Pick: First Quarter – Nuggets -4.5
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Mavericks vs. Bulls
By Chris Baker
The Bulls have a massive math issue in this game as they rank 24th in offensive three point attempt rate and dead-last in defensive three point attempt rate allowed. They are allowing opponents to shoot 42% of their shots from three which is a recipe for disaster against this Mavericks offense that ranks 2nd in three point attempt rate on the season.
The Bulls will also have issues guarding Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving as their only reliable perimeter defender is Alex Caruso and he can’t guard two players at once. One of Irving or Doncic should have an exploitable matchup at all times on the court and the Bulls do not offer much deterrence at the rim with Nikola Vucevic at the center spot.
Finally, this is just an outstanding spot for this Mavericks team as they get to travel a short distance from Detroit while this Bulls team is getting back from a weekend in LA and a four game road trip.
I suspect this could be a let-down spot for the Bulls so I will back the much better team with a substantive math edge here.
Pick: Mavericks -4
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Raptors vs. Nuggets
By Joe Dellera
This game is ripe with blowout potential but one player I’ll still target is Michael Porter Jr.
MPJ has been one of Denver’s most consistent scoring threats and is averaging 16.6 points per game this season. However, over the last 10 games he’s been a bit hotter averaging 20.1 ppg.
This matchup against the Raptors is extremely soft for him without both Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl and add in questionable tags to RJ Barrett, Bruce Brown and Chris Boucher. They just do not have anyone to line up against him.
His points line is set at 16.5 tonight, a number he has had more success with at home, especially in double digit wins (Denver is a 14 point favorite). He has exceeded this line in 63% of home wins of 10+ while averaging 18.3 ppg.
I expect the Nuggets to take care of business against a undermanned Raptors team and for MPJ to exceed 16.5 points tonight.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr over 16.5 Points
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Raptors vs. Nuggets
Aaron Gordon gets the Raptors tonight, and I think he's primed for a good one.
Gordon matches up well with what is a banged up Raptors squad, now without Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes without RJ Barrett, Bruce Brown, and Chris Boucher questionable.
Gordon hasn't been a model consistency betting wise, however, he's been better as of late and over 22.5 PRA in eight of 11. They're small and slow on the inside now and don't get stops consistently at all. This could be an explosive offensive effort for Denver, with AG being a beneficiary.
Pick: Aaron Gordon over 22.5 pts + rebs +ast (-125)
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