The NBA regular season continues on Monday with roughly 10 games remaining per team. There's a smaller six-game slate in the Association on Monday night, but our Action Network NBA betting experts are ready with their seven best bets. Find their expert picks and analysis below, including picks for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies on NBA TV.
NBA Odds & Picks
Bulls vs. 76ers Spread
Matt Moore: I'm fading my model here, which makes this game just 76ers -5 as Philly is just a bit worse at home than on the road.
This is pretty simple: Joel Embiid (A) wants that MVP so bad he can taste it and (B) destroys the Bulls. Since 2018, Embiid is 10-0 straight up and 9-1 against the spread vs. Chicago, including 4-0 when facing Nikola Vucevic. It's not Vooch's fault, but Embiid takes this personally for whatever reason. He just loves destroying poor Vooch.
Given that the 76ers are world destroyers right now, I'm willing to overlook both teams being on a 3-in-4 and trust the 76ers to continue doing what they've done with Embiid vs. the Bulls: dominate.
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Player Prop
Bryan Fonseca: Though he's only played twice since March 5, as far as we know, Jalen Brunson is playing tonight. He also has a tantalizing prop to hit over 2.5 3s at +140 against the floundering Minnesota Timberwolves.
The bottom line is, while he doesn't shoot a ton of threes, he's been strikingly accurate from deep all season long, and he is even 43.2% from downtown since the All-Star break despite two performances of 0 for 3 or worse.
One (of the many ways) to beat a Rudy Gobert-led defensive unit is shooting over the top after creating space – and Brunson has done that to bigs in drop coverage routinely to the tune of being a 41.4% shooter from deep. The volume isn't always there, but it could be tonight.
Furthermore, he's made 3+ threes in four of his last six appearances despite never going over seven attempts. With Brunson, it's usually the volume you're concerned with, not the accuracy, but hey, that's why this is +140. And yet, it's still very attainable.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 3s |
Timberwolves vs. Knicks 2H Total
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I lean to the over in this game — especially in the third quarter. The Wolves are the most profitable team to the third quarter over on the road (26-9) with a 40.3% ROI, according to EV Analytics. The Knicks are the fifth-most profitable team at home (22-14) with a 14.5% ROI.
The Knicks are 16-9 to the full game over as home favorites, according to Statmuse. The Wolves are 16-8 as road underdogs, but with so many injury question marks, I’ll wait on official lineups before placing any bets.
Make sure to follow me in the Action app for an updated pre-game play in this one (username: aoconnorwatts), but in all likelihood I’ll take a third-quarter over if Edwards plays.
Because of the Knicks' horrible third-quarter defense, I’ll look for an in-game betting opportunity at halftime. If the game is trending under at the halfway mark, I’ll look to bet the over if we can get at least four points better than the closing line.
The Wolves are 37-24-3, 61% to the over in the second half this season (15% ROI), while the Knicks are 37-30, 55% (5% ROI).
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Player Prop
Kenny Ducey: It would seem that Quentin Grimes is very happy to see his teammate Jalen Brunson back on the floor. In the last game Brunson played prior to his return on Saturday, Grimes dropped 19 points on 7-of-13 shooting. In the three games without him, the sharpshooter averaged just 5.3 points on five shots per game. Then, with Brunson back in the fold, he scored nine in the win over Denver.
The common denominator here is volume. While he had a few big games back in December without Brunson, Grimes has yet to find a role in this fully-polished Knicks offense with Brunson out. He’s averaged just five field goal attempts (3.8 from three) per game in his last five contests without Brunson, but with Brunson, he is taking 7.5 shots per game (five of them from 3).
So, it’s no coincidence that he returned to relevance on Saturday with Brunson back.
Minnesota has ranked sixth-worst since the break in defended field goal percentage against 3s and seventh for the season, making this a great spot to play Grimes props. I’m going to choose to focus on triples here given what we’ve covered, and considering this line is extra short. He’s hit multiple threes in each of his last three games with Brunson.
Pick: Quentin Grimes Over 1.5 3s (+100) |
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Spread
Austin Wang: The Mavericks struggle on the road: their Net Rating is 22nd (-3.4) on the road while they are 14-21 SU and 15-20 ATS away from American Airlines Arena. Another interesting trend to note: the Mavericks are 9-24-2 ATS after a win, per the Sports Data Query Language at Killer Sports.
The Grizzlies have won five of their previous six games. They are also the league's best team at home, boasting an elite 29-5 record.
Despite playing without Ja Morant recently, Tyus Jones’ facilitating and playmaking have benefited the entire team, and Jaren Jackson Jr. has scored 25, 28 and 31 in the past three games.
My pick is simple: back the elite home team to win again. The Grizzlies have a 29-5 record at home, and the Mavericks struggle on the road. The Grizzlies' defensive intensity will be too much for the Mavericks to match, and I expect another big game from Jackson Jr. with the Mavericks' lack of interior defense.
I make this line Grizzlies -3 with Doncic and Irving in. Both of them are listed as questionable, which gives this play some additional upside if at least one of them sits out.
Pick: Grizzlies -2 |
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Spread
Matt Moore: Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both questionable for this matchup, upgraded from out. If Doncic plays, this is going into the lion's (bear's?) den because he has won his last six games against Memphis, and nine of 12 against the Grizzlies in his career. They have owned Memphis.
I think this particular spot is favorable for Memphis. The Grizzlies are in full on "no one believes in us" mode right now without Ja Morant, who will remain out for this game. The Grizzlies have a big edge on the interior with Jaren Jackson Jr. who has stepped up without Morant, and they have wing defenders to at least throw to the shredder against the Mavericks.
The Grizzlies give up a high volume of 3-point attempts but at a low percentage; that number is debated by analytics professionals as luck at times, but at least in the short term, it helps when dealing with how the Mavericks play.
Dallas is 8-15 straight up with a -2.1 Spread Differential vs. top-10 defenses, per Cleaning The Glass. Memphis is 17-12-1 as a home favorite.
If Ja was playing, I'm probably ducking this game entirely. However, Morant's absence gives me enough of an edge, especially in the event that either of Irving or Doncic doesn't play. I make this game Memphis -6.5 at full strength for both teams. Even taking out two points for Morant, I can't get to Memphis -2. I like this number to Grizzlies -3.5.
Pick: Grizzlies -2 |
Warriors vs. Rockets Spread
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I’ll stop fading the road Warriors when the books stop making them road favorites. The Rockets, who are supposedly tanking, have played decent basketball lately. They’re a surprising 5-5 straight up and 6-4 ATS and have won three of their last four home games.
The Warriors have owned the Rockets lately, going 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and winning the last nine straight. However, if we look at the three games this season and how the two teams have played lately, a strong case can be made for Houston at +10.5.
Golden State has won all three meetings, but the past two wins were at the Chase Center where the Warriors have been dominant. The first game of the season was in Houston, and while the Rockets lost 127-120, they covered the 10.5-point spread.
Now, the Rockets come in with triple revenge, and while they’re on a back-to-back, they should cover the 10-point spread.
Until the Warriors prove they can win big on the road, they have no business being double-digit favorites to anyone outside of the Bay. I bet the Rockets at +10 but would take them down to +6.5.
Pick: Rockets +10.5 |
