Let's be honest here, the final days of the regular season are especially tough to bet. Team motivations vary day-to-day depending on their place in the standings, injury concerns could place stars on the sideline and then there's the teams with nothing to play for at this point in the season.
Our betting analysts are undaunted by the circumstances and have three best bets today from three of tonight's matchups. Find their expert picks for those games below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Houston Rockets vs. Charlotte Hornets
Chris Baker: Rockets appear to be playing all of their main guys while the Hornets have begun to play mostly G League/deep-bench players.
These teams have both struggled but I will confidently back the Rockets as they are at least playing replacement-level NBA guys. The Hornets have shut-down their entire starting five and are now allocating starters minutes to guys who were in the G League all year.
The Rockets have not won many games this season but they are undeniably talented and athletic when you look across their rotation. I’ll buy into that talent here as I expect these guys to look significantly more comfortable than the Hornets guys who are only starting to play their first consistent NBA minutes. Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green should have their way against a weak Hornets point of attack defense. I also expect Alperen Sengun to have the edge down low against Kai Jones and Nick Richards.
Ultimately, I think the talent disparity justifies this line being closer to -5 or -6 so I will gladly grab the -2.5 and back the Rockets on the road against this Hornets team. Play this up to -4.
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
Bryan Fonseca: Considering that the Celtics are locked into the two seed, and the Raptors have way more to play for, let's expect an aggressive defensive effort from a team playing for a better seed in the Play-In.
Young Scottie Barnes hasn't had the sophomore season some expected, but he's had some better games lately, and more importantly as it pertains to this prop, he's hit over 1.5 steals in five of his last six games after a drought.
Sure, this isn't a lock, but I like my chances given that the Raptors will try to keep the Celtics in the mud with their length and on-ball pressure defensively. Barnes has stepped up there as of late, and overall, this is a shot on something that's actually been manifesting on the court — like i said, five of six — and it's +185, so why not?
The value is there, the track record is there, and the reasons for this play to be successful are there.
Orlando Magic vs. Brooklyn Nets
Brandon Anderson: It's not the prettiest slate in the world and we've got some really long underdogs as books try to sort out between tanking teams, resting squads, and motivations. But you already know not every one of these huge favorites will coast to easy wins, so let's go fishing for a long shot.
The Nets want this win because they're trying to clinch the 6-seed and stay out of the play-in race, while this means nothing to the Magic. Fair enough.
But the Nets have "wanted" wins for months since trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, and they haven't exactly been getting them. Since dealing both stars, the Nets rank 20th in Net Rating, ahead of mostly just the tanking teams, and bottom half of the league on both offense and defense.
The team can't rebound to save its life and isn't particularly adept at shooting or scoring anymore. Everyone loves a good Mikal Bridges breakout, but it's a problem that so much of the offensive load is on him.
The truth is that this just isn't a great Nets squad, or even one that was meant to be a team. It's a collection of parts holding onto its playoff berth for dear life.
As for the Magic, they may be resting their best players but it's clear by now that they're not tanking. After a brutal 5-20 start, Orlando is actually 29-26 since, playing above .500 ball and trying hard. And yes, this team got absolutely blasted last night by the Cavs, but that's what Cleveland does, and Brooklyn is no Cleveland.
Trying hard or not, the Nets just aren't good enough to earn this much respect against a team that's just not this much worse. Let's go wild game hunting and see if we hit.
This line is rising and the payout increases exponentially at this point, so it may be worth waiting til closer to tip for an increased payoff.
