The weekend is done, football season is over and the NBA can finally take center stage. Monday's schedule is not lacking in intrigue with 11 games overall, including a battle in Miami — Nuggets vs. Heat (7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV) —and in the Boroughs — Nets vs. Knicks (7:30 p.m. ET).
One of those games is among the matchups that our betting analysts like on tonight's slate, which features picks on a total and a player prop. Read on for their expert picks and predictions below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: Despite the Hornets ranking 27th in Net Rating, they protect the ball surprisingly well, ranking seventh in Turnover Percentage (13.4%), according to Cleaning the Glass. The Hawks rank second at 12.8% and Hawks opponents rank just 18th in transition opportunities as a result (15.4%).
The Hornets also matchup well with the Hawks from a shot profile perspective. Atlanta has the highest rate of attempts in the midrange — an area the Charlotte looks to defend (ninth in opponent midrange rate).
While two of the three meetings this season have gone over, none of those games went over the current total of 240.5. If we look at the previous eight meetings, the under is 7-1. Both teams have also been trending to the under lately. In the past five Hawks games, the under is 4-1 and in the Hornets' past seven, just one game has gone over the total.
We have several injuries on the Atlanta side that would benefit the under. Trae Young is probable, but is shooting just 46% from the field in his last 10 games and just 43% on the season. John Collins is questionable with left hip flexor soreness and Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable with right hip soreness.
Make sure to monitor the injury report, but I make this game significantly lower than the current number and would take the under down to 235.5.
Brooklyn Nets vs. New York Knicks
Joe Dellera: Mikal Bridges was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Kevin Durant to Phoenix. He is emerging as a clear primary option for the Brooklyn Nets. In his debut with the Nets, he logged a 25.7% Usage Rate, which is higher than his Usage Rate with the Suns when Booker was out (21.5%) and overall this season (18.5%), per Cleaning the Glass.
The Nets need his shot creation and he along with Cam Johnson led the Nets’ starters in field goal attempts in their debut. Bridges scored 23 points on 18 shots — he has only taken more than 18 attempts eight times in 57 games this season.
The usage is there and the Knicks are about league average defending midrange shots — an area where Bridges is scoring well this season. I expect Bridges to lead the Nets in scoring yet again and I like him to exceed his points prop of 18.5, a number he’s cleared in seven straight games.
I also think 25+ (+340) is worth a sprinkle at DraftKings given his recent form and it’s a number he’s hit in three of these last seven games.
