Each of the primetime games during NBA Rivals Week has been a thriller and Friday night's slate, while short, features two more "rivalry games" on NBA TV.
In the early portion of tonight's doubleheader we get a rematch of last year's first round series in the Western Conference: Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves (7:30 p.m. ET). In the late game, it's a rematch of the 2019 NBA Finals: Raptors vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET).
Our analysts have targeted these two games and have four best bets for those matchups. Read on for their expert picks and predictions for Friday.
NBA Odds & Picks
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: These are two teams trending in opposite directions and we’re getting the team with the upward trajectory as a home dog. Minnesota has thrived at the Target Center lately. They’re 10-5 straight up and 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 home games.
Then we have the Grizzlies, who find themselves at the end of a west coast road trip in which they’ve failed to record a win. They’re just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 and are one of the worst teams on the road this season (9-14-2 against the spread). Tonight marks the fifth game in eight days for Memphis and Ja Morant and Desmond Bane (questionable) have played more minutes than their season averages in that span.
Rudy Gobert is questionable for Minnesota with a sore right groin, but he’s played the past two games. Even if he sits, the Timberwolves have weathered the storm with ease in his absence. Thanks to quality minutes from their backup center, Naz Reid, Minnesota is 6-3 without Gobert and 5-1 at home.
These teams have split the previous two meetings this season with each team winning and covering at home. Add in some revenge for the Timberwolves after last season’s early playoff exit and that’s enough for me to love the Wolves to cover anything as an underdog. I also added a half unit on the moneyline.
Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors
Chris Baker: This is a complete mismatch in a number of different ways on both sides of the ball and if you want to dive deeper, go check out my full game preview.
Zoom out and focus on the Raptors current situation. They are currently 22-27 and sit a full three games back from the play-in. They have trade rumors swirling around virtually their entire starting five now that Fred Vanvleet is reportedly expected to sign with Rich Paul’s agency Klutch.
This team is in complete disarray in my opinion and I think the front-office knows deep down that they are not ready to compete for anything meaningful with this current roster construction.
Even if the Raptors were fully motivated and organizationally sound, I would still make this closer to -6.5 or -7 given all of the Warriors edges on both sides of the ball. That is not the case however, and I expect the Warriors to dominate this Raptors team from start to finish. Trust the Warriors to make a statement and play this up to -6.5.
Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors
Joe Dellera: The Warriors host the Raptors today in the Bay and the Warriors have been dominant at home compared to the Raptors who have struggled immensely on the road.
At home, the Warriors are 18-6 with a +7.5 point differential compared to the Raptors on the road who are 7-15 with a -2 point differential. While they did not have to travel very far from their Wednesday game in Sacramento, this matchup with the Warriors presents different problems.
The Warriors should be able to dictate the Pace of this game and get up the shots they want. The Raptors allow three point attempts at one of the highest rates in the league and their opponents shoot 37.8% from 3-point range — not ideal when you’re playing the Warriors who shoot 38.5% from 3-point range, the fourth best mark in the league.
This matchup sets up well for the Warriors 3-point shooters, but I particularly like Jordan Poole in this spot, and his PRA line is at 29.5. He’s exceeded this in eight of his last 10 games and earlier this season he logged 50 PRA vs the Raptors in December.
As far as correlation, Poole has smashed this line in Warriors’ wins. In the last 10 Warriors’ wins, he has exceeded this number in all 10 of them. If you parlay them into a SGP at DraftKings you can get +170, which I think is worth a partial unit.
I expect the Poole to be open today and I’ll take his PRA along with the SGP.
Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors
Austin Wang: The Warriors play at the fastest pace in the league, and we saw some small lineups (Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green) in their last game against the Grizzlies with Andrew Wiggins out. He's questionable for Friday's game, so we could see the same strategy again.
The Warriors are one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the league (second in 3-Point Rate, fourth in 3-Point %), while the Raptors are 22nd in 3-Point Rate, 27th in 3-Point percentage allowed. They are 27-19-2 to the over for the season (58.7%) and 16-8-1 to the over vs. teams that play at a slower pace than league average, per the SDQL at Gimme The Dog.
The Raptors also play some small lineups, and they have a tendency to increase their tempo with fast-paced opponents. The Raptors are 14-9 to the over against teams that play at tempo faster than league average, per the SDQL. They are third in the league in fast break points. In addition, they are first in the league in points off turnovers and the Warriors are 29th in Turnover Percentage in the league.
I see a fast-paced, high-scoring game between these two teams. The Raptors tend to slow the game down in the second half, so the angle I am specifically targeting the over on the first half total, where both teams have excelled. In their previous 10 games, the Warriors are 6-3-1 and the Raptors are 7-2-1 to the over in the first half.
