We've got a busy Monday night ahead in the NBA with seven games on the slate, including a doubleheader on NBA TV: Hawks vs. Bulls (8 p.m. ET) and Grizzlies vs. Kings.
Our betting analysts have three best bets for Monday, featuring a player prop, total bet and a play on the spread in tonight's late game in Sacramento.
Check out their expert picks and predictions for tonight's action below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I’m going with the under in this game, for a few reasons. One, I think the reason this total is so high, is due to the lack of defense from both teams.
In their past five games, the Bucks have an Defensive Rating of 119.1, according to NBA Advanced Stats, while the Pistons are 24th in the league at 120.9. Neither squad is doing much to prevent the other team from scoring, and yet these two teams are still trending to the under lately.
Milwaukee — a dead-under road team at 17-6 — has gone under the total in five of their last seven games. The Pistons, who trend more significantly to the over at home on the season (14-9), have gone under the total in four of their last six home games.
Despite lackluster performances lately, the defenses for both teams are able to limit the opposing offense. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Pistons take the ninth-most shots from the midrange (33.8%) and are 11th at shots from the corner (9.5%). The Bucks allow the third-most from midrange, but are second in corner 3s allowed (6.8%).
Things look even better for the Pistons, who should be able to mitigate the 3-point volume from the Bucks. Milwaukee shoots the fifth-most 3s in the league (40.6%), but Detroit allows the 12th-fewest (34.5%).
Finally, in the last seven meetings between these teams, the under is 6-0-1. In those seven games, the highest total was 232 in a game the Bucks won 131-101 for a push on the total.
My model has this significantly lower, but I would confidently bet this down to 232. Be sure to monitor the injury report for the Bucks who has been held out of the past five games despite being listed as probable.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
Joe Dellera: The Wolves take on the Rockets once again after beating them on Saturday.
One of the players that had an excellent game was D’Angelo Russell who recorded 23 points, eight assists with four 3-pointers. He’s played very well against the Rockets over the last two years and has found much success from deep.
In six games over the past two seasons, Russell has scored over 20 points five times, and has made four or more 3s in all five of those games. The Rockets allow the highest frequency of 3s in the league (40.8%), and opponents shoot 37.1% from long range, which is above league average on enormous volume.
I expect Russell to continue his strong play against Houston, and clear his 3s prop of 2.5. I’d also play 4+ 3s prop given his history in this matchup.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings
Chris Baker: The Grizzlies need to get right after dropping two games to the Suns and Lakers. Monitor the injury report here as this is a second-leg of a back to back, but if everyone is healthy, I like the Grizzlies on what is essentially a pick'em line.
The Grizzlies matchup well with the Kings and it showed through their first three matchups this season. The Grizzlies have gone 2-1 so far against the Kings and they have been specially effective against Domantas Sabonis who averaged just 12.6 points per game on 53% shooting in those games. Sabonis just has no physical edge on Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. and it has been clear that he has been less effective against them.
Sabonis has averaged a 19.6% usage rate against the Grizzlies this season compared to his 22.9% season-long usage rate. Harrison Barnes exceeded his usage rate in the last game between these two teams. I think the Grizzlies can continue to disrupt Sabonis’ rhythm with their size here.
A second major reason that I like this spot is due to expected positive shooting regression from the Grizzlies. They’ve shot below 34% from deep and sub 52% effective field goal percentage in three straight games. During that stretch they’ve played a solid schedule of opposing defenses between the Cavs (2nd), Suns (11th), and Lakers (18th).
Now they get a Kings defense that ranks 25th in defensive rating despite playing the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses this season. This Grizzlies offense should look much better tonight. There is also the potential for major negative shooting regression on the Kings side as they have shot above the 85th percentile from the mid-range in their past three games.
This team can’t miss right now but that could easily change when facing this No. 1 ranked Grizzlies defense. Again, monitor the injury reports, but if Memphis is fully healthy I would play them up to -2 in this spot.
