We might be in the calm before the college basketball storm, but the NBA is still barreling toward an exciting finish with about a month left in the season. Monday night features a pair of national TV games on ESPN headlining the seven-game slate: Grizzlies vs. Mavericks (7:30 p.m. ET) and Suns vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET).
Our crew of betting analysts has a trio of best bets today that includes on of those matchup and features picks on player props and a first quarter spread. Read on for their expert picks for Monday below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Atlanta Hawks
Joe Dellera: Capela has had direct success against Rudy Gobert as his size is needed on the floor in those matchups. Capela has logged double-digit boards vs Gobert in each of the four games in which they squared off played since 2021.
Gobert is also listed as questionable with an ankle injury, so while I like the line against Gobert, if he’s unable to play Capela should smash in this matchup. Although the history is a bit older, in three games against Naz Reid, Capela has logged at least 15 rebounds in every matchup
I want to get in on this line now, because it should only increase if Gobert is ultimately ruled out and if that happens, I’d be very interested in alternate lines for Capela’s rebounds up to 16+.
Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
Austin Wang: I broke this down in more detail in Monday's game guide, but I'm targeting a quarter bet here. I anticipate the Suns will get out to a fast start and make an early statement after their loss against the Kings. The Warriors, who struggle in the first quarter, could experience another slow start after a hard-fought overtime win. However, the Suns struggle with depth and I expect the Warriors to narrow the gap as the game progresses.
Even though I think there is value on the Suns as 4.5-point underdogs, I am unwilling to fade the Warriors at home. Instead, the angle here is to back the Suns in the first quarter, where we are able to get plus-money on the moneyline.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Sacramento Kings
Chris Baker: I view the Bucks as the best and deepest team in the NBA right now — that depth showed in their overtime loss to the Warriors on Saturday night.
This is a great matchup for the Bucks defense as they can comfortably slot Jrue Holiday onto De’Aaron Fox and Brook Lopez onto Sabonis. The Bucks also do an excellent job of limiting opponent 3-pointers, ranking fourth in the NBA in opponent 3-point attempt rate allowed this year. Sacramento’s offense is obviously heavily predicated on 3s, ranking eighth in offensive 3-point attempt rate. This Bucks defense also rank third in rim rate allowed on the year, so I would expect the Kings to live in the mid-range much more tonight.
I think there is a strong case that this is the “peak” of the King’s market value. They are 40-26 and definitely deserve to be applauded, but there are reasons to expect negative regression.
The Kings have played the easiest schedule in the NBA this season, according to Dunks And Threes. Their defense ranks 25th in defensive rating despite playing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NBA. They’ve won eight of their last nine games but they shot out of their minds in the vast majority of those games. In six of nine games they shot above 62% for Effective Field Goal Percentage and in all nine they had an eFG% above 57%.
I think this team is due for negative regression and this is an excellent spot for it as they face a Bucks defense that has a strong case for best in the league. Finally, we obviously have the added benefit of Giannis Antetokounmpo suiting up and I would expect this line to move closer to -4 with Giannis in the lineup. I like the Bucks regardless of Antetokounmpo's status and I'd play this up to -2.
