NBA Best Bets Tonight | Expert Picks for Friday, Jan. 19
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  | 7 p.m. | |
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  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
We have an excellent seven-game slate on-tap in the NBA tonight headlined by a nationally televised doubleheader with Celtics vs. Nuggets taking center stage in the early window and Nets vs. Lakers serving as the night cap on ESPN.
Our NBA betting experts have compiled six best bets for three of today's games. Let's dive into our NBA best bets and expert predictions for Friday, January 19.
Spurs vs. Hornets
By Joe Dellera
LaMelo Ball is back from injury and his minutes have continued to ramp up each game. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Spurs who will be without Victor Wembanyama.
LaMelo has played three games since his return and is averaging 26 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in 29.3 minutes per game. However, he has seen an uptick in his minutes in each game. The three games he has played were against the Spurs, the Heat, and the Pelicans. He scored 28 against the Spurs in just 26.7 minutes, 21 against Miami, and 29 against the Pelicans.
Here, the Spurs play at one of the fastest paces in the league (3rd) compared to New Orleans (15th), and Miami (29th). So this is again a clear pace-up opportunity for LaMelo.
On the season, LaMelo has exceeded this line in 54% of games but when he's played at least 30 minutes, this jumps to 60% and he averaged 27 points per game in those contests.
I like LaMelo to exceed 25.5 points in a pace-up spot against this porous Spurs’ defense.
Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 25.5 Points (-125)
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Spurs vs. Hornets
The Hornets enter this home contest against the Spurs as a very clear sharp side and relative to an NBA key number. Betting splits indicate 43% of the bets and 83% of the handle on the Hornets side. This is in conjunction with line movement going from Hornets -3.5/4 at open to universally -4.5 now.
You can still grab a Hornets -4.5 (-105) at BetMGM, and considering the four most common outcomes in NBA basketball are in the 5-8 range. Grabbing the favorite before the -5 is important and valuable!
Despite this being a match up between the most recent first and second overall draft picks in Wembanyama and Miller, I think we can rely more on the veteran presence of the Hornets to lead the home team to victory.
Pick: Hornets -4 (-110)
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Spurs vs. Hornets
By Joe Dellera
The Spurs will be without Victor Wembanyama today and one player that I expect to be negatively impacted is Tre Jones. On the season as a whole, Tre Jones is averaging 5.4 assists per game and 1.1 per game are to Wemby. Since Tre joined the starting lineup this has skyrocketed.
In the last seven games he is averaging 7.0 assists per game with 2.3 going to Wemby, per NBA Advanced Stats. Jones has excellent rapport with Wembanyama and he has been shooting over 51% on field goal attempts off of Tre Jones Passes. Without Wemby, some of these easier assists simply may not exist.
Here, this is a soft matchup against the Charlotte Hornets but the Hornets have actually played at a slow pace this season, just 20th in the league. Even though the Hornets’ defense has struggled, it would be a relative pace-down spot for the Hornets.
Over these last seven games as a starter, Jones is averaging 7 assists on 13.3 potentials. However, on the season without Wembanyama he is averaging just 4.2 assists in 24.8 minutes per game. In the one game he started without Wembanyama he played over 34 minutes against the Bulls and tallied only 4 assists on 12 potentials.
Jones should see a bit more success here given the matchup; however, this line is a touch inflated due to his back-to-back double digit assist performances against the Hawks and Celtics.
I like Tre Jones to go under 7.5 assists tonight.
Pick: Tre Jones Under 7.5 Assists (-134)
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Nuggets vs. Celtics
This matchup could be a preview of the 2024 NBA Finals in June, but for now, this isn't a great number for the Nuggets. They've struggled to cover anywhere but in Denver (11-9 ATS at Ball Arena).
We saw them lose to the 76ers in Philadelphia in their last game–although that could be easily chalked up to a travel issue that kept the Nuggets on the tarmac for nine hours–and we know Nikola Jokic is mindful of the playoffs over regular season record, which makes them more viable long-term and less so in the short.
Both teams are elite at home. However, on the road, they're 7-14 ATS. Only the Hawks at 4-15 have a worse spread record.
But this is also a bet on the Celtics, who will most certainly get up for this game considering they're at the risk of losing their first home game of the season to a formidable opponent.
I have this projected with a lot of spread leeway for Boston because of the home-road splits for both teams, but more realistically the value on Boston diminishes past -7.
Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-115)
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Nets vs. Lakers
Mikal Bridges, if you remember, was a Phoenix Sun until the Kevin Durant deal last year, so he's had plenty of games against the Lakers, 16 to be exact, and has gone over 24.5 points just once.
Now, this will be his first shot as a Net, but it comes at a weird time. Bridges is battling a leg contusion and, although he's expected to play — he has missed one game in his six year career and it was only because he was that day — he limped off badly during the third quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday.
Bridges had gone over 24.5 points in three games until then, finishing with 21, but went under in seven straight before that, finishing under 20 in five of those games.
If you go back, the outlier appears to be the three-game stretch of overs. Bridges has lived under 24.5 points for over a month now. He's only gone over in nine of 40 games this entire season.
Lastly, the Lakers are the second-best in the league at defending without fouling, they allow .170 opponent free throws per field goal attempt, and Bridges averages 5.4 free throw attempts per 36 minutes with a .313 free throw rate, which makes this over even more challenging, and then you factor in the injury and season-long sample.
Sorry, Mikal, this one's an under for me, dawg.
Pick: Mikal Bridges Under 24.5 Points (-120)
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Nets vs. Lakers
Brooklyn Nets unders are the gift that keeps on giving. The Nets have not cracked a game total of 215 since January 7, and not only twice in their last eight games.
Facing the Lakers on the road does not feel like a threat of a high pace or efficient 3-point scoring affair. Both teams possess strong rim protection defenders, perimeter length, and are strong at defending the long ball.
I have this under as my strongest position of the night and willing to play it below 227. As you get a smaller number, reduce the bet size because there is inherently less value.
Pick: Under 227 (-110)
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