The NBA regular season continues with a jam packed 9-game slate this Friday — headlined by a nationally televised doubleheader on ESPN as Mavericks vs Celtics takes center stage in early window, followed by Bucks vs Bulls later in the evening.
Our experts are locked and loaded with eight picks for seven of tonight's matchups. Let's dive into our NBA best bets for Friday, March 1.
NBA Best Bets Today | Friday, March 1
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Hornets vs. 76ers
As low as the total may seem, it's too high for this matchup. The Hornets have quietly been one of the best defenses in the league since Tre Mann and Grant Williams started in Charlotte and they haven't gone over the total in a single game in which they've played. Both add some grit and peskiness that bothers opposing offenses (and teammates in Williams' case).
By Defensive Rating, the Hornets are 27th on the season, but they've skyrocketed to third since the new acquisitions. They'll also be playing their fourth game in six nights so legs will be tired and the pace likely will not be pushed — at least from the Charlotte side.
For the Sixers part of this equation, it's pretty simple. As bad as their defense is (27th) — which doesn't help the under — their offense isn't much better (23rd). These teams have combined for less than 200 points per game over the past five games and I don't see an offensive explosion coming tonight.
There's significant leeway here and I'd take the under down to 212.5.
Pick: Under 213 (-110)
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Warriors vs. Raptors
By Matt Moore
Spot play. The Warriors have been great on the second-night of a back to back (SEGABABA) this season at 9-4 ATS but have only been a road favorite in those spots vs. bottom-dreck teams, and the Raptors are not that. Toronto's not good but they're not bad, either. They're a limbo team.
Meanwhile, you know where you don't want to travel from after playing? New York. Teams that face the Knicks in MSG are 4-11 ATS this season, and 2-5 on the road.
Even with the Warriors' improved play warranting a bump in their power rating, I still project this at around a pick 'em given the back-to-back. I'll grab the 2.5 and maybe get a fortunate injury report from a tired traveling Warriors team as well.
Pick: Raptors +2.5 (-110)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
The Celtics host Dallas on Friday night. While all eyes will be on the Maverick’s injury report to see if Luka Doncic (ankle) will suit up, there’s still a player prop we can target for Boston.
Jayson Tatum’s rebounds prop is set at 8.5 which is exactly his average on the season. However, this is a good matchup for him. Dallas surrenders the second-most rebounds per game to their opponents (54.5), with the third-worst rebound % (47.9%), while playing at the eighth-fastest pace in the league.
In their matchup on January 22, Tatum secured 11 rebounds on 19 chances, a significant uptick from his 12.6 chances he typically averages. While it is notable that Porzingis did not play in that game, Al Horford still played 31 minutes.
I expect Tatum to crash the boards and exceed 8.5 rebounds tonight.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 Rebounds (-135)
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Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies
At the very least, I think the Blazers are going to keep this close, possibly even win outright, and if that's the case, Jerami Grant will need to have a big night.
The Blazer wing has gone over 22.5 points in six of his last 10 games, but tonight he'll be without Scoot Henderson, Malcolm Brogdon, Shaedon Sharpe, and likely DeAndre Ayton, who is doubtful.
Over his last 10, Grant's averaging about 24 points on just 43 percent shooting, though he's at 38 percent from three-point range, and he's at about nine free throw attempts per game in that stretch, hitting at an 84 percent clip.
I don't mind the inconsistency from the field because the shot diet is there, as well as the foul shooting. Grant is averaging 17 field goal attempts and, combined with nine free throws, you're getting 26 chances per game to score — about five of which are also coming from three-point range. Grant's volume of shooting should be there against the Grizzlies as he and Anfernee Simons lead the way.
Grant never fell short of 14 field goal attempts in the entire month of February, and he's shot at least six free throws in eight of his last 12.
Pick: Jerami Grant Over 22.5 Points (-125)
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Kings vs. Timberwolves
By Joe Dellera
The Timberwolves host the Kings tonight and one player that I expect to smash is Rudy Gobert.
Gobert has dominated against Sabonis in these head to head matchups. In his last 10 games against Sabonis, Gobert has averaged 16.2 points and 15.0 rebounds and has exceeded 27.5 points + rebounds in seven of 10 games with two misses at 27 while recording a double-double in all 10 games.
Considering Anthony Edwards (ankle) is on the report as questionable, I like to add the points. Gobert averages three more points per game without Edwards than he does with him, and I’d expect more pick and roll with Mike Conley if Edwards is out. Even if Edwards plays, the matchup remains elite.
I expect Gobert to exceed 27.5 points + rebounds tonight against the Kings.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 27.5 PTS + REB (-115)
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Bucks vs. Bulls
By Joe Dellera
The Bulls take on the Bucks today and that means Giannis and Brook Lopez are playing in a drop.
Vucevic is not the most prolific shooting threat; however, he does enough when spacing the floor to take advantage in this matchup.
So far this season, he’s made 2+ three-pointers in 35% of games; however, over the last few season against the Bucks he is averaging 2.4 per game with 2+ in 13 of 16 games. He takes 6.7 three-point attempts per game compared to just 4.2 the rest of the season. The volume is there for a 34% career three-point shooter.
I like him to knock down at least two from long range tonight and don’t mind a sprinkle on 3+ at +390. (DraftKings)
Pick: Nikola Vucevic Over 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (+120)
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Wizards vs. Clippers
By Matt Moore
On top of projecting this at 235 and the fact that since All-Star break, unders are 90-36-4 (69.4%), how about this: the Clippers clamp down after a loss. This season, after a straight-up loss, the under is 13-6 in Clippers games.
Throw in a Wizards team that will likely celebrate a close moral victory after losing in overtime to the Lakers and another Friday night in LA pending, and we've got the recipe for a clunker from the Wizards' offense.
Pick: Under 240 (-110)
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Wizards vs. Clippers
So if you look at Deni Avdija's game last night, I bet his over/under point total — playing him at over 14.5 — and he got to 15 in regulation. The Lakers beat the Wizards in overtime. And in case you missed it, Deni cleared the over beforehand, not scoring in the final stanza.
Tonight, he's listed at 13.5 points against the Clippers — I'm hitting the over again. Avdija has gone over in seven of nine, averaging over 20 points per game during that stretch because of a 43-point outburst against New Orleans.
He's also had 10 or more rebounds in four of six, all games that ended in double-doubles. So I may sprinkle something on him to do that as well at +320.
The only concern is the Clippers blowing them out and limiting Avdija's minutes — but I'm rolling anyway. Avdija is shooting at a 56% clip lately, and 50% percent on 4+ threes per game over his last nine.
Pick: Deni Avdija Over 13.5 Points (-115)
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