Tuesday NBA Best Bets
Tuesday's NBA slate features two In-Season Tournament games: Knicks vs. Bucks and Suns vs. Lakers.
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
With what should be an entertaining slate ahead, our NBA writers came through with five best bets, ranging from player props in both games to a moneyline underdog play in the slate-opening showdown.
Let's dive into our staff's NBA best bets for Tuesday's In-Season Tournament games.
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Knicks vs. Bucks
Knicks ML +172
By Maltman
Not including the last day of the In-Season Tournament group games, underdogs that had moneyline odds between +100 and +190 have won games at a 50% higher clip than expected.
We saw both the Pelicans and Pacers win in this exact spot yesterday. Both teams had solid matchups, while the Pacers specifically had a clear coaching advantage.
Adrian Griffin still doesn't seem to have his feet under him, and so far this season, the Knicks have a better net rating. I'd bet this down to +150.
Pick: Knicks ML +172 (Play to +150)
Josh Hart Over 5.5 Rebounds
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks take on the Bucks in the In-Season Tournament semifinals in what should be an exciting matchup. I took an in-depth dive into the matchup here.
The Knicks are the best rebounding team in the league with a league-leading 53.2% rebounding percentage, per NBA Advanced Stats, and those boards cut down on their opponents' second-chance opportunities while giving the Knicks extra possessions.
This is a significant edge they'll have over the Bucks, who have dropped from a 52.1% rebound percentage last season to just 49.8% this season.
One Knick to watch is Josh Hart, whose rebounding prop is set at 5.5 against Milwaukee. Hart is a player whom Tom Thibodeau trusts in late-game situations, and he has seen an uptick in his minutes lately as well with Quentin Grimes struggling.
Hart is averaging 7.4 rebounds per game this season and has grabbed nine, eight, and 10 boards against the Bucks over the last two seasons. In the playoffs? He secured 7.4 rebounds per game, and it's skewed a bit due to two low-minute games against Miami.
When Hart played 25-plus minutes during the playoffs, he averaged a whopping 8.6 rebounds per game.
Pick: Josh Hart Over 5.5 Rebounds
Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points
I think the Knicks can cover and potentially win this game, but in order to get there, Jalen Brunson has to lead the way.
The Bucks have struggled all season to guard the perimeter, making them perfectly susceptible to Brunson's dribble penetration, shot creation and efficiency as the Knicks' lead guard.
Brunson put up 45 in Milwaukee on Nov. 3 and has gone over 25.5 in two of his last four.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points (-105)
| |
Suns vs. Lakers
Suns +2
By Jim Turvey
The Los Angeles Lakers are currently the "I feel like I'm taking crazy pills" team in the NBA for me.
I see them ranked as a top-five team by multiple NBA experts and hear people talking about them as contenders. I just don't see it at all.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis have each only missed a single game all season, and yet, here's a complete list of their notable wins:
- Magic (still very new to being a good team)
- Clippers (pre-Harden, and even now, is this a good win?)
- Cavaliers (without Garland in the second half)
- Rockets (their resume is so weak that this needs included)
- Suns twice
Of course, those latter two wins would seem important given their opponent on Tuesday, but both of those games saw the Suns play without Devin Booker, who will be the best player on the court Tuesday night.
We saw Postseason Booker average 33.7 points and 7.2 assists while playing plus defense last spring, and if anything is clear from the first night of the knockout rounds, it's that these have postseason energy.
The Suns own +1.9 adjusted net rating, per Dunks&Threes, and that's with Booker having played in about half of their games.
The relatively healthy (at the superstar level, at least) Lakers, by comparison, have an adjusted net rating of -0.2. The Suns even rate better by spread differential in the past two weeks.
I just don't see how the Lakers are favored in this game unless you really bake in a lot of Postseason LeBron.
Even weighing that a bit, I'll play this if I can get any Suns points whatsoever, as I have this as a pick'em.
Pick: Suns +2
LeBron James Over 7.5 Rebounds
By Joe Dellera
The Suns take on the Lakers in Los Angeles on Tuesday to round out the semifinals, and this matchup will pit Kevin Durant and Devin Booker against LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
LeBron always seems to step up in these kinds of games where the stakes are a bit higher, and the stats reflect that.
During the regular season, LeBron has averaged 27.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.8 assists with the Lakers. In the playoffs, he's seen similar numbers with averages of 25.9 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 7.8 assists.
However, there's a clear uptick in rebounds. His rebounding line of 7.5 for this game is too low.
When LeBron is aggressive, it often means he's grabbing rebounds to kick-start a fast break. We saw this last year in the playoffs when he exceeded this line in 14 of his 17 games.
This season, he's gone over this line in 11 of his 20 games, but he has cleared it in both games against the Suns with eight and 11.
Pick: LeBron James Over 7.5 Rebounds
