NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Sunday
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The NBA offers up an eight-game slate on Sunday, November 26. Here's everything you need to know about NBA best bets today — our expert picks for Sunday.
Our betting experts have picks on totals, spreads and player props for today's best NBA bets. Let's get to the picks!
Hawks vs. Celtics
By Matt Moore
I make the total on this game all the way at 253, based on this being a matchup of two top-10 halfcourt offenses. Overs in Hawks games are 9-4-1, as well.
Boston's an elite defense, but they also have the 16th-ranked defensive strength of schedule. Without Kristaps Porzingis, who will miss the game with a calf injury, Boston's rim protection takes a step down. The Celtics defense is two points worse per 100 possessions without KP, which doesn't sound like much but could really matter against the Hawks' pick and roll.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are on a back to back. The over in games where one team is on a back to back this season is 45-27-1 (63%).
Pick: Over 235 | Play to 239.5
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Hornets vs. Magic
By Jim Turvey
I really like the Magic full game spread on Sunday against the Hornets, but targeting the first half is the full hammer.
For the game as a whole, the Magic should be favored by more than the -7 they are right now. The Magic are 11-5 early this season, and while some of that success is due to success in close games, they still have the 12th best adjusted net rating in the league, per Dunks and Threes, at +1.6.
The Hornets, however, have been nowhere near the team that finished only one spot above them in the Eastern Conference last season. To start this campaign, Charlotte is 5-9, but they've been worse by adjusted net rating, ranking 25th overall this season (-5.7).
In the past two weeks, this disparity has only grown, with the Magic the third-best team by spread differential in the last 14 days (+9.7) and the Hornets sixth-worst (-5.1). What that means is that the market has been to slow recognize the change in these two teams. And as such, I like the Magic up to -8.5 for the full game.
But for the first half, I see even more of an edge. The Magic have been one of the strongest first half teams this season, with a bonkers +17.5 net rating in the first half that has resulted in a 13-3 record against the spread in the first half this year. The Hornets are at the other end of the spectrum, with a -10.5 first half net rating that ranks 27th and has resulted in a 4-10 record against the spread in the first 24 minutes.
There's no way it will get to this number, but I would play the Magic to -6.5 in the first half.
Pick: Magic to Cover the Spread, Magic 1H -3.5
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Hornets vs. Magic
By Chris Baker
The Hornets' current starting five has been solid, as they have a +10.1 net-rating across 109 possessions. What’s been so impressive about this lineup is that they are winning with defense, as they have a defensive rating of 102.8 (97th percentile). This lineup is also running a lot more, as they have a 20.2% transition rate (87th percentile).
This team will be getting a boost to their bench unit as PJ Washington will return from a foot injury today. Charlotte also has not played since Wednesday, so they will have a two-day rest edge here. The Hornets have been a bit unlucky to begin the year as they rank fourth in location eFG% but just 23rd in actual eFG%. I think Charlotte has the talent to compete and knock down these open shots with Miles Bridges back in the lineup.
On the flip side of the ball, I expect the Magic to get to their shots as Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony should have a consistent edge at the point of attack against Lamelo Ball, Ish Smith, and Bryce McGowens. I also don’t like the way the Hornets wing defenders match up with Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, so I expect the Magic to dominate offensively when Mark Williams is off the floor. Charlotte has an awful defensive rating of 125.2 with Williams off the court.
The Hornets have climbed back to top-10 in pace with Miles Bridges back in the lineup while the Magic have also begun to play a little faster, so I am good with this over at 228.5 and would play this up to 230.
Pick: Over 228.5 | Play to 230
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Hawks vs. Celtics
In the last game that Kristaps Porzingis missed for Boston, Al Horford stepped up with a big game, racking up 14 points, eight rebounds, and five blocks on 5-for-9 from the field and 4-for-8 from deep.
That was against the Sixers, who allow the seventh fewest corner 3s in the league. Horford gets the majority of his looks from behind the arc, and he loves the corner 3 most of all. He ranks in the 97th percentile for his position when it comes to corner 3 shot attempts, and the Hawks give up the most corner 3s in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.
I expect Horford to get a lot of opportunity to clear 1.5 made 3s, but I also think he’ll score in general with Porzingis out of the lineup. Shop around for the best number because last game his 3s line closed at plus-money in some books. If you can get over 7.5 or 8.5 points, I like those lines as well.
Pick: Al Horford Over 7.5 points, Over 1.5 3s
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Spurs vs. Nuggets
By Jim Turvey
I have a slight lean to the Spurs, who, although they have dropped 11 straight, have covered two in a row. Denver, on the other hand, has failed to cover the spread in eight straight.
However, I much prefer the under, which I would take to 227.5. I also want to target the first quarter as both teams are in a busy part of the schedule thanks in part to the In-Season Tournament. These teams are a combined 22-10 to the under in the first quarter this season, so my favorite bet is the first quarter under. I would play to Under 58.5.
Pick: Under 229 | Play to 227.5
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