NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Saturday, Feb. 3
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
NBA picks for Saturday, February 3 include a quartet of games from this six-game slate, which is headlined by a matchup between the Lakers and Knicks on ABC.
But that's not all, our analysts also have picks on Nets vs. 76ers, Warriors vs. Hawks and Bucks vs. Mavericks.
Continue reading for our NBA expert predictions today.
Nets vs. 76ers
Here we have two teams in opposite situations, and in some ways this is the stars aligning for a hammer spot. The Nets have been at home for the last five games and travel less than 100 miles to play the 76ers in Philadelphia, while the 76ers play their first home game since Jan. 22 after five games on the road.
Without Joel Embiid, the 76ers pulled out all the stops on Friday with Tyrese Maxey dropping 51 points in Utah — a notoriously tough environment to play in. Now Philadelphia returns home after a long road trip in a definitive exhale spot, giving the Nets a chance to steal one on the road.
If it weren't for the injuries, this might be a multi-unit play, but there are some IR question marks that make this a standard best bet. Brooklyn will be missing Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) and could be without Dennis Smith Jr. (foot), while Ben Simmons is probable. Simmons was a revelation in his recent return and I expect him to help lock down Maxey and Tobias Harris if he plays.
Either way, I like Brooklyn to cover any dog price and will even sprinkle enough to win a half unit on the moneyline in case the Nets win outright.
Pick: Nets +3.5 (-102)
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Nets vs. 76ers
By Joe Dellera
This is a terrifying under, but I think this line is a touch inflated after his 51-point explosion against the Utah Jazz on Thursday night where he was 7-of-9 from 3 and had an absurd 1.59 points per shot attempt, his fourth-highest mark this season.
The 76ers have relied on Tyrese Maxey without Joel Embiid and he has come through while averaging 27.8 points, 5.2 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game in 10 games. That’s a PRA average of 36.3 and with his line set at 41.5, he’s exceeded that in just 3-of-10 this season and 4-of-22 over the last two seasons (albeit a few were with James Harden).
Tonight’s matchup against Brooklyn is not necessarily an easy one despite the Nets' struggles this season. Brooklyn has the 17th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Rating, which is fine, but a key point is that the Nets play slow. They play at the 22nd-fastest Pace in the league and they get their opponents stuck in the mud on both sides of the floor. This is in sharp contrast to the Utah Jazz, who Maxey just shredded and who play at the ninth-fastest Pace, but really allow their opponents to get out in transition.
The Nets have enough defensive options to throw Maxey off as well. Mikal Bridges should see time on Maxey and even Cameron Johnson or Ben Simmons (in a limited capacity) can help as well.
Maxey can still have a solid game while going under this 41.5 prop.
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Nets vs. 76ers
By Chris Baker
This one comes down to Ben Simmons being probable to play, as the Nets' transition rate and pace skyrocket when he is in the lineup.
We’ve also seen Cam Thomas's and Spencer Dinwiddie’s minutes trending up, which is very beneficial for an over. Across 130 possession sample size with Simmons, Johnson and Dinwiddie all on the floor together, the Nets have an unreal 132.3 offensive rating.
With Dennis Smith Jr. questionable and Dorian Finney-Smith and D’ayron Sharpe out, we should see all of these guys playing more minutes.
On the flip side of the ball, Joel Embiid will be out, but the 76ers' offense is still respectable with Embiid out and Tyrese Maxey on as they have a 121.8 offensive rating in that scenario.
We just saw the 76ers put up 127 in Utah on Thursday night and I have confidence they can replicate that against this Nets defense here at home. Take the over up to 235.
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Warriors vs. Hawks
By Joe Dellera
Kuminga has been awesome lately and he’s seen his role dramatically change over the last few weeks. He’s hit this points line in seven of his last eight games, with the miss at 20. He’s coming off a 29-point performance against Memphis and he should continue to roll in this spot against the Hawks.
Over these last eight games, Kuminga is averaging 25.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 32.7 minutes per game to go along with a Usage rate of over 23%.
He’s taking 16 FGAs per game with a low of 11 and a high of 19. He’s also played at least 29 minutes in seven of eight games.
This spot against the Hawks is advantageous. They play fast and their defense is poor. Kuminga will be able to score at each level in this matchup and may see an expanded role if any of the Warriors’ veterans sit in the second game of a back-to-back.
I like Kuminga to exceed 21.5 points tonight.
Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Over 21.5 Points (-115)
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Warriors vs. Hawks
By Chris Baker
This number is too short for the Warriors even if you just use the season-long numbers, as the Warriors rank 12th in adjusted net-rating (+0.9) and have played the single most difficult schedule of opponents, according to dunksandthrees.com.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are 23rd in adjusted net-rating (-2.3) and have played the 21st most difficult schedule this year.
However, you can’t just use the season-long data as the Warriors have been extremely injured this season while the Hawks have been very healthy for the most part.
When Draymond Green has been on the floor the Warriors have a solid +4.1 net-rating for the season. With Green and Brandin Podziemski on the floor together they are +32.1 net-rating.
The recent switch to Green at the center has resulted in some effective lineups and people seem to have forgotten who Green is and just how much impact he has on winning due to his antics.
This Warriors team is still a team full of NBA champions and historic greats while this Hawks team has been completely unserious for all of the season.
The Hawks have been in better form lately, but I still think many of them are one foot in the door and one foot out with all of their names being floated in trade rumors for the past four weeks.
Even if you don’t want to account for all of this context, this number should be closer to pick'em using raw season-long data.
Back the Warriors at +115.
Pick: Warriors ML (+115)
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Bucks vs. Mavericks
By Chris Baker
At first glance you might think this number is too high, but with Dereck Lively doubtful for the Mavericks this should be closer to 250.
The Mavericks have a respectable defensive rating of 115.8, but that drops to 120.9 with Lively off the court, and this is an especially bad matchup to be missing your primary rim-protector as they will have to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Mavs' defense currently ranks 22nd in defensive rating despite playing the second-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. On the flip side of the ball, they rank eighth in adjusted offensive rating after playing the single most difficult schedule of opposing defenses.
Likewise, the Bucks' defense ranks just 19th in adjusted defensive rating and have played the fifth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bucks do not have anyone in their rotation who can survive defending Luka Doncic. He should be able to get to any spot he wants on the court and I expect him to have another dominant performance here.
This number is too low for two top-10 pace teams and top-10 offenses who each have overrated defenses. I’d play this up to 249.
Pick: Over 246 (-109)
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Lakers vs. Knicks
Donte DiVincenzo a.k.a. DDV a.k.a. The Big Ragu a.k.a. White Donte — the funniest nickname of the bunch — has a good spot to go over 20.5 points for the third time in four games.
The Knicks will be without Quentin Grimes and Julius Randle, most notably, with OG Anunoby's status up in the air as he carries a questionable tag.
As the injuries crept into the Knicks' starting lineup over the last few games, DiVincenzo is earning his money, getting 28, 33 and 20 in about 40 minutes per game over his last three. Field goal attempts? How about 22, 22 and 26 with more than 15 three-point attempts per contest, no fewer than 15 in any of the three games.
It's a heater in more ways than one, but on volume alone, DiVincenzo should get us home here, and if most guys in the NBA are taking 22 shots in a game, with about 70 percent of them coming from three, they're likely to finish over 20.5 points… Yes, even you, Jordan Poole.
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