We have made it to a new week and it's a lovely day to get your betting energy reloaded. So happy Monday and buckle up for NBA best bets today: expert picks for Monday, November 13 as our experts are heavy on the Cavaliers vs. Kings matchup. And we can't turn a blind eye to Kristaps Porzingis playing against his former team as the Knicks pay a visit to Beantown to take on the Celtics.
Let's get rocking and rolling for the slate ahead and get you all set for betting moves that we highly recommend.
NBA Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks take on the Celtics in what should be a competitive game between these two division rivals. One player that has taken these matchups against the Knicks particularly seriously is Kristaps Porzingis. Maybe it's the narrative and he wants to shine against his old team, or maybe it's just the matchup, regardless, Porzingis has played excellent against the Knicks over the past few seasons.
Over the last 3 seasons, Porzingis has averaged 22.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 4.0 3s per game. The narrative fits; however, he is a tough matchup for Mitchell Robinson. Robinson can cover out on the perimeter, but because of Boston's ability to space the floor with Porzingis at the 5, it takes Robinson out of his comfort zone.
Porzingis has a history of getting his 3s up against the Knicks as well. In his five games against the Knicks over the last three seasons, he has made 2/5, 4/8, 4/9, 5/9, and 5/9 3s – all in games where Mitchell Robinson played. At the current number, I prefer the over 2.5 3s (+150) but if it dropped to anywhere closer to +110, I'd pivot to over 18.5 points due to the similar hit rate and more flexibility in terms of how he can score.
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis over 2.5 3's (+150)
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Cavaliers vs. Kings
By Jim Turvey
Monday's matchup with the Cavs is actually a game in which I lean to the Cavs, but on an individual level, I'm picking out a Kings player to highlight here.
With D'Aaron Fox doubtful for Monday, there's a lot of usage and shots up for grabs once again for Sacramento. In the last two games, Murray has gotten up 17 FGA each game, with a combined 16 of those coming from three. Murray might not quite reach the 40 minutes he played on Friday against the Thunder, but if he gets even 15 FGA, with eight of those coming from three, he should be in decent shape to hit this prop.
Personally, I would set his points prop at 18.5 points, and that's before even considering the matchup. The Cavalier defense is strong, but its weakest point is on the wing, where Max Strus is likely to draw the matchup against Murray. There's a chance is Murray is hot, they counter with Mobley and flip Strus onto Harrison Barnes, but that's more of a waste of Mobley, having your best defender chase Murray around the perimeter non-stop.
Right now this line is either 15.5 juiced, or 16.5 even money, both of which I would take. I would play this even to 16.5 juiced or 17.5 even money.
Pick: Keegan Murray over 15.5 points
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Cavaliers vs. Kings
By Matt Moore
This has moved 1.5 points from the opener but doesn't come close to where I have this power rated. If we assign 2.5 points for a homecourt flip (the average advantage last season), that makes this Cavs -5 in Cleveland, and that's absurd.
For reference, if we just take the preseason win totals for these teams in the market and convert them to a power rating, the Cavs would be a 2.2-point favorite on neutral court. De'Aaron Fox is listed as doubtful for this game. Let's be conservative and only have Fox worth two points to that preseason spread (he's worth 2.5 by my evaluation of last season's metrics). So that's Cavs -5 on neutral court without Fox. Kings homecourt gets you to this number.
But we've seen so far that the Kings aren't as good as their preseason projection. The Kings are 4-4 but 22nd at schedule-adjusted power rating at DunksAndThrees.com. I have them projected far below their 44-wins preseason line currently. Much of that is Fox; they'll likely play better as the season improves. But the Cavs are also considerably better than their 4-5 record.
I make this line significantly above Cavs -5 and am good with betting it to that point.
Pick: Cavaliers -2.5
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Cavaliers vs. Kings
By Chris Baker
With Fox doubtful I will back the Cavs here on the road. The Cavs rank 5th in adjusted net-rating (+3.3) while the Kings are 22nd (-1.4). The Cavaliers also match up well here as Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley should be effective rim-deterrents against Sabonis.
The Kings rank 3rd in offensive three point attempt rate (42.6%) but the Cavalier defense has actually done a good job of running opponents off the three point line, ranking 5th in defensive three point attempt rate allowed (33%). Additionally, the Kings just aren’t a very good team without Fox, as they have a -10.5 net-rating with Fox off the floor this season. When the Cavs have had Garland and Mitchell on the floor this season they have a +11.4 net-rating. With Garland, Mitchell, and Strus on the court that jumps to +18.2.
This is a very good team but their season-long numbers are being weighed down by their slow-start due to injuries. The Kings will not be able to keep Mitchell and Garland in front of them tonight and I expect the Cavaliers to take care of business and cover this short number.
Pick: Cavaliers -2
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Knicks vs. Celtics
You know, I'm gonna be honest — and I generally am even though I enjoy joking about some of this stuff because it's fun — but I don't like betting on Kristaps Porzingis. He's liable to limp off at any time, and he isn't this unrivaled level of consistency either.
However, I'm expecting another good night against his former team.
Porzingis' season-high is 30 points on opening night against the Knicks. For the season, he's hovering around 20 points per game, and has gotten over 18.5 in four of his last five games.
KP is shooting a career low 58.7 percent of his shots from two, and a personal best 32.7 percent of his twos are coming between 0-3 feet. He also has career low attempts from the mid-range (.096 from 10-16 feet, .019 from middies 16-feet and further) and is shooting 39.5 percent from deep where 41.3 percent of his shots are coming from.
In English — Porzingis is shooting fewer long twos, more threes, and more shots at the rim. And he still has a .256 free throw rate, getting about six attempts per game, which is inline with where he's been since 2021-22, and his 2017-18 All-Star season prior to his ACL tear.
Of course, will this all mean he definitively gets his over tonight? It's a one-game sample size, who knows. But because KP is attacking the basket more, spotting up from three and hitting from downtown, and is maintaining his free throw output while being a distant third on the team in usage. These are things you want when looking at overs.
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis over 18.5 points (-115)
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