NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Monday, Jan. 15
The NBA has a loaded 11-game slate dialed up for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The festivities kick things off this afternoon with Rockets vs. 76ers, followed by a TNT double-header with Spurs vs. Hawks and Warriors vs. Grizzlies, and then we head over to NBA TV for Thunder vs. Lakers to cap off the evening.
Let's dive into our NBA best bets and expert picks for Monday, January 15.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 9:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs. Hawks
By Joe Dellera
The Spurs take on the Hawks this afternoon in Atlanta and this spread is giving the Hawks far too much credit. While both of these teams are bottom 10 in the league in Adjusted Net Rating, per Dunks and Threes, the Spurs are in better form lately.
Over the last two weeks, the Spurs have a +0.4 point differential compared to the Hawks’ -9.7 during this same stretch. This has coincided with Tre Jones entering the starting lineup on January 4, which is allowing Victor Wembanyama to play more minutes with a legitimate point guard and it has paid dividends.
The Victor and Tre minutes are a +4.9 net rating compared to the team’s -9.0 on the season as a whole, per Cleaning the Glass. This team is better when the personnel sets them up to succeed.
Contrast this with the Hawks who are performing far below expectations for the season and now have multiple players being discussed as trade chips. This is an opportunity to sell high on the Hawks while buying low on the Spurs, and it’s one I certainly will not pass up.
Pick: Spurs +8 (-110)
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Spurs vs. Hawks
This is a great example of pairing correlated NBA lines and good numbers. The Spurs are the clear sharp side of the market with the spread of Spurs +8, receiving around 65% of the bets and 85% of the money.
Getting this line is important because the four most common NBA outcomes are 7/5/6/8, giving us bettors no losing outcomes with these key numbers. We also have two indicators of related line movement. The spread is becoming +7.5 at some books like DraftKings. And to go one step further, the under is moving down from an opening line of 249.
Underdogs and unders are correlated in NBA betting, the most basic explanation being if there are less points scored, it becomes harder to cover a big spread. We have an MLK day game which has a historical trend of unders and a west coast team traveling east for a 3 p.m. ET tip off.
I expect a slow pace and a close game, so I am stacking the Spurs +8 and Under 249 in two separate straight bets.
Pick: Spurs +8 / Under 245.5
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Spurs vs. Hawks
By Joe Dellera
I like the Spurs in this game and a big reason why is what I expect from Victor Wembanyama. He has been transcendent in his rookie season averaging 19.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.1 blocks, and 1.1 steals in just 28.6 minutes per game. Even lately, he has been smashing in limited minutes simply due to his efficiency and usage.
Here, he gets a matchup against the Hawks. The Hawks play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league and they have the 28th ranked Adjusted Defense. This will be a pace-up spot for Wemby and an excellent opportunity to see extra possessions even on a minutes limit.
When these teams played previously, Victor tallied 21 points, 12 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 2 steals in 29 minutes. Here, his line is set at 29.5 points + rebounds. He has averaged 29.6 on the season but when we consider the matchup this is simply too low.
Wemby has exceeded this number in three of four contests with Tre Jones as a starter, and I expect him to cruise over this tonight. This is a brutal matchup for Clint Capela and the Hawks down low.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 29.5 PTS + REB (-120)
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Pacers vs. Jazz
Despite this seemingly being a spot to "ride the hot hand Jazz," this is much more of a "fade the Pacers" type of bet.
We know Indiana is going to be without their best player in this matchup, as Haliburton is still recovering from the recent hamstring injury. Additionally, they are on the second leg of a back to back. Not all back to backs are the same. Some are home. Some are in the same city like Knicks-Nets or Lakers-Clippers. Some are Kings-Warriors and a short bus ride away.
The most daunting schedule spot in the NBA is Denver-Utah B2B due to the elevation in both cities. This is absolutely brutal for the Pacers and a major fade. I played for just under 1u because of the number being -7.5, but I am ok with finding other angles like ML exposure, or even selling points on plus-money alternate spreads.
January basketball has been getting ugly and this could be one of those spots.
Pick: Jazz -7.5 (-105)
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