Mavericks vs Warriors Prediction, Picks Tonight | Best Bet for Saturday
Here's everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. Warriors on Saturday, Dec. 30 — our expert Mavericks vs Warriors prediction and betting picks for tonight's best bet for Saturday.
The Dallas Mavericks are slumping, having dropped five of their last seven games with injuries mounting in the backcourt. Can they find some success on Saturday against a Warriors team that has also struggled as of late, or will they once again succumb to their absences?
Let's get to our Mavericks vs. Warriors prediction and pick.
Pick: Warriors -4 | Play to -4.5
Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction
Pick: Warriors -4.5
Mavericks Betting Outlook
The Mavericks' outlook here is incredibly muddy. Luka Doncic missed Dallas' last game with left quad soreness, and he's listed as questionable for this tilt in Golden State. Kyrie Irving, who's been out several weeks with a right heel contusion, has been upgraded from "out" to "doubtful" ahead of this one, though it's still unlikely he'll play and even if he does it'll likely be in limited time. Seth Curry is also questionable with an illness, but judging by his poor career numbers against his brother, it's also unlikely this will impact the game much.
The Doncic injury is the one that will have the biggest impact on this game. Given the minor nature of the ailment, and the line here, it does seem pretty likely he'll play. Still, you may want to split your bet or wait until there's official word on Doncic's status before deciding to go one way or another on this one.
With all of that out of the way, this is a matchup which the Mavericks will likely welcome. Their greatest weakness lies inside, both on the offensive and defensive end, and they've also struggled on the glass more than just about every team. The Warriors have the same weaknesses, electing to ride or die with their backcourt, and while their offense has come alive a bit over the last 10 games their defense remains incredibly pedestrian.
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Warriors Betting Outlook
Golden State's biggest strength is on the perimeter, where it ranks seventh in 3-point defense according to Cleaning the Glass, and while its offensive numbers from downtown have fluctuated a bit this season, amounting to a very average attack, this team does rank inside the top five when it comes to frequency of shots taken from outside.
The Warriors haven't even been able to receive a boost from shooting on their home rims this season, considering they've seen around a 1-point decrease in 3-point percentage in the Bay, but they can take solace in the fact that the Mavericks are roughly three points worse on the road and will have to find a way through their excellent perimeter defense.
They also haven't really tried to force the issue inside all that much, but they do rank ninth in field goal percentage inside of four feet with Trayce Jackson-Davis stepping up in recent weeks in light of the Draymond Green suspension. We did expect that Green suspension to make matters more difficult on the offensive end, but it's worth noting that the Warriors have been able to find the right rotation over the last 10 games to rank 11th in scoring efficiency.
One potential wrench in the Warriors' plans here is the status of Kevon Looney, who is questionable with an illness, though Jackson-Davis has stepped up in a huge way defensively and on the glass off the bench this season and could have a chance to really shine here.
Mavericks vs. Warriors Picks, Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 243 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 243 -110o / -110u | -178 |
Dallas has been a solid team away from home despite the poor shooting numbers, but as road underdogs this season, the Mavs are just 3-5 against the spread. Similarly, while Golden State has been pretty solid at home, the Warriors are now just 4-9 ATS as home favorites after a disheartening loss to the Jimmy Butler-less Heat which saw them lose the battle at the 3-point line in shocking fashion.
I expect things to level here given Dallas loves to shoot the long ball and Golden State has almost always done a bang-up job in defending outside. On top of that, it's not as if the Warriors didn't get an abundance of open looks against the Heat, who profile similarly on the perimeter as the Mavericks, they simply didn't go down.
Shooting variance should kick in here, and the Warriors should see some positive regression to the mean on offense against a porous defense. The fact that there's a real chance that both Doncic and Irving will miss this game should given you even more confidence that Golden State will turn things around, considering it already has a huge matchup advantage on offense and should be able to hit Dallas where it really hurts on defense.
Laying the points with the Warriors in San Francisco has been dicey this season, but the Mavericks have been just as bad when getting points on the road. I'm betting Golden State to pick up a rare cover as a home favorite in this spot.
Pick: Warriors -4 | Play to -4.5
