Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks for Friday, Dec. 22
Here's everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. Rockets on Friday, Dec. 22 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Houston Rockets will look to snap a three-game losing streak when they host the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night. This recent skid marks the fourth time Houston has lost three in a row, and we're only 25 games into the season.
Interestingly, in each instance thus far, the Rockets avoided extending the streak to four games.
Houston has a good chance of keeping that alive as it welcomes in a depleted Dallas team. The Mavericks were already without one key player, Kyrie Irving (heel). Now they won't have their best player available either as Luka Doncic nurses a quad injury.
In addition, starting center Dereck Lively II is out with an ankle injury, along with three players (Dante Exum, Josh Green and Maxi Kleber) on their bench.
To get an idea of Doncic's value to the point spread, all you need to look at is the line movement as Dallas opened as 2.5-point underdogs before moving to +6.5 on the news the Slovenian star would miss the game.
The Mavericks are now as high as nine-point underdogs at some sportsbooks.
There's plenty to unpack with this line movement, and in this preview, I'll share how bettors can still find value in this matchup.
Let's get to our Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction and pick.
Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction
Pick: Same game parlay (+110): Rockets 1Q 3-way ML / Rockets 1H 3-way ML / Rockets win in regulation
Mavericks Betting Outlook
Despite not having Irving for ten games this season, Doncic managed to keep the Mavericks afloat, given their 16-11 mark. Dallas is tied for first with New Orleans in the Southwest Division, and it's the sixth seed in the Western Conference playoff standings.
After missing out on the playoffs last season, I'd say things are looking up for Dallas.
This Mavericks team seems to understand one another better, particularly in late and close-game situations. According to NBA.com, they're 9-3 with a +15 Net Rating in clutch moments when the scoring margin is within five points with five minutes or fewer remaining in a game.
Last season, Dallas was 26-29 in this spot, with a -1.0 Net Rating.
The Mavericks' performance in these clutch moments has been the difference to their season thus far, because if you look at their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, they're ranked right around where they were in the previous campaign.
While there's no question that the end product has been better this season, you'd have to think the odds are not in their favor when they take an injury-riddled roster on the road to Houston.
When this game tips off, Dallas will have roughly 70% (83.5 combined points) of its team's offensive production unavailable for this matchup.
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Rockets Betting Outlook
Despite this recent rough patch for the Rockets, they still look as if they're well ahead of schedule. Houston is one game over .500 at 13-12, and it's on pace to win 43 games after finishing with 22 wins last season.
The addition of head coach Ime Udoka seems to have changed the organization's mindset.
Houston is one of the better teams defensively, ranking second in efficiency (106.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) according to TeamRankings. That's quite an improvement, given that the Rockets finished 29th in this category a season ago.
Per NBA.com's John Schuhmann, in Udoka's lone season with the Celtics, they had the best defense in the league, allowing 5.6 fewer points per 100 possessions compared to the previous year before his arrival.
Thus, I'm more inclined to give Udoka the bulk of the credit here instead of the Rockets' free-agent signings of Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet.
Given how well-drilled the Rockets are defensively, it's pretty surprising to see how they lost these recent games with an average of 132.3 points allowed during that stretch.
However, with the Mavericks depleted of much of their firepower, the Rockets stand an excellent chance to rediscover their defensive mettle.
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Mavericks vs. Rockets Picks, Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 225 -110 / -110 | +280 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 225 -110 / -110 | -360 |
Even if you're a contrarian bettor, I'm not sure how you make a case for the Mavericks with so much of their scoring offense unavailable to play. It doesn't feel like this is one of those "next man up" situational spots.
However, this is professional sports so anything can happen.
If you're getting involved in this game, it might make sense to consider a same game parlay with the Rockets. Usually, I'd look to mix in a player I can isolate on the opposing team, like Tim Hardaway Jr., but sportsbooks have yet to post Mavericks' player props.
My reasoning for Hardaway is that since he ranks third in scoring (17.4 points per game) for the Mavericks, he's less likely to have the variance you might associate with some of the fringe players.
But since that option is unavailable, I'll have to load up on the Rockets for my parlay.
I've noticed that sportsbooks offer three-way moneylines that tend to have slightly better odds because they include the possibility of a tie. Bettors can take advantage of this option at PointsBet, where you can parlay the Rockets to have the lead at the end of the first quarter (-165), first half (-240) and the fourth quarter (-350).
This same game parlay results in +110 odds, which offers better value because of the possibility of an additional 10% return on my original stake.
Pick: Same game parlay (+110): Rockets 1Q 3-way ML / Rockets 1H 3-way ML / Rockets win in regulation
