Mavericks vs Clippers Prediction, Picks for Saturday, Nov. 25
Here's everything you need to know to make a Mavericks vs. Clippers pick and best bet tonight, Saturday, Nov. 25.
The Dallas Mavericks have had a good holiday weekend in Los Angeles, taking down the Lakers on the eve of Thanksgiving and resting up in preparation for the underachieving Clippers on Saturday.
While L.A. is fresh off a gutting loss to the Pelicans on Friday night, does it pose a threat to Dallas here the way it's been playing?
Let's get to our Mavericks vs Clippers prediction and pick.
Mavericks vs Clippers Prediction
Pick: Clippers Moneyline (+114)
Dallas Mavericks
Yes, the Mavericks were able to take out the Lakers on Wednesday, and for three quarters they put forth an utterly dominant performance. They also didn't close the game in the prettiest fashion, blowing a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter and falling behind in the final minute. Impact rookie Dereck Lively was injured in that game on a hard fall, hampering an already-weak Mavs frontcourt, and he'll be out for Saturday night's contest with a back contusion.
It's the last thing Dallas would like to hear, given it's ranked dead last in field goal percentage allowed at the rim according to Cleaning the Glass and just 28th in rebounding rate. Size has been a massive issue, but luckily the league's third-ranked offense has picked up the slack and then some to lead this team to a 10-5 record.
Dallas is taking 3s at the second-highest rate in the NBA, hitting a stunning 38.3% to rank fifth in the NBA, all while playing at an incredibly fast pace. It's clear what this team likes to do, and that should make for quite an interesting matchup against a team which plays rather similar basketball.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers' offense is beginning to take shape now that James Harden has been installed at point guard for nearly a month, and we can confidently say this is not a team that will be playing at a fast pace with Harden leading the charge. They rank 20th in that category since Harden's debut, and in that time they've chosen to kill Ivica Zubac's minutes as Ty Lue opts for a smaller lineup often led by newly-acquired PJ Tucker at the small-ball five.
So, like Dallas, L.A. has struggled to rebound the basketball without Zubac playing consistent minutes and they rank just 21st in defense at the rim. They've begun to have some success since settling into this new style of play, winning three of their last four prior to Friday's loss to New Orleans, and they are boasting one of the best perimeter defenses around which ranks third-best at defending the perimeter, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The injury report has yet to be released ahead of this game given the Clippers walked off the floor not too long ago, and while it's unlikely that we'll see Lue rest a lot of players it's worth noting that Paul George's effectiveness could be compromised given he played 39 minutes in the loss to the Pelicans. He took an incredible 30 shots in that game, hitting 14, and has been single-handedly driving this offense at times over the last few weeks.
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Mavericks vs Clippers Pick, Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 235 -110 / -110 | -135 |
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 235 -110 / -110 | +114 |
While I'm a little worried about what George will have left in the tank here, I'm much more worried about how the Mavericks are going to score against one of the best 3-point defenses in the league. The Clippers struggle against teams with imposing size such as the Pelicans, but this matchup with Dallas is one they should enjoy quite a bit.at
Dallas has a soft interior which should take away the biggest weakness of the Clippers, and it also ranks in the bottom third of the league when defending in the mid-range, an area where L.A. makes most of its money.
The Clippers are well-equipped to win a battle on the perimeter against just about anyone, and I will take them as underdogs in such a matchup every time. They're 23-19-1 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back under Lue, and while they're just 5-9 ATS this season they're 3-3 ATS in home games. Lue has done an excellent job in situations like this, often without some of his best players, and we should trust him here to beat a flawed Mavericks team which is now down one of its most important interior players in Lively.
