Magic vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks | Best Bet Today
Here's everything you need to know about Magic vs. Warriors on Tuesday, Jan. 2 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
After going 5-1 following the suspension of Draymond Green, the Warriors are in another tailspin, mired by a three-game losing streak. Golden State will try to turn things around when it hosts the Orlando Magic on Tuesday night.
If you look at the recent Warriors' skid, their highest point total by a player was 25 from Stephen Curry. In another game, Curry led the team with just 13 points.
The Warriors continue to lack consistency on offense, prompting head coach Steve Kerr to shuffle his starters ahead of the team's last game. Chris Paul and Trayce Jackson-Davis entered the starting lineup, replacing Brandin Podziemski and Kevon Looney.
While Paul (24 points) and Jackson-Davis (17 points) scored season-highs, the Warriors couldn't overcome a slow defensive start and a 1-for-11 shooting performance by Klay Thompson. After the game, Kerr spoke to reporters about his team's struggles.
"We haven't found that grit that every good team needs, where you pull together and play for the group," Kerr said. "We're not there, and that's a problem."
Based on those comments, this Warriors team is still searching for answers.
Thus, is laying points with them, even at home, a wise decision?
Let's get to our Magic vs. Warriors prediction and pick.
Magic vs. Warriors Prediction
Pick: Magic ALT Spread +4 (-118)
Magic Betting Outlook
The Magic continue to be one of the league's biggest surprises. After finishing 14 games under .500 last season, they sit fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 19-13 mark.
Orlando's most notable improvement has been on the defensive end, according to TeamRankings. The Magic are currently second in efficiency, allowing 107.1 points per 100 possessions after finishing 17th last season.
Orlando center Goga Bitadze provides a significant boost as a rim protector. Bitadze averages 1.7 blocks per game, more than twice Wendell Carter Jr.'s numbers (0.6 blocks per game) from a year ago.
On offense, the gains haven't been as emphatic. The Magic went from 26th to 24th in efficiency, improving by 1.1 points per 100 possessions.
However, this team is learning how to grind out wins. If you look at NBA.com's clutch metrics, which capture stats when the scoring margin is within 5 points with five or fewer minutes remaining in a game, the Magic are 10-5 after finishing 19-25 last season.
I suspect that much of the "grit" Kerr referenced involved his team's overall commitment to defense. The Magic can give Kerr and the Warriors a front-row viewing of what that commitment looks like on Tuesday night.
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Warriors Betting Outlook
Curry remains the one constant with Golden State — you know what you'll get from the two-time MVP winner every night. Unfortunately, we can't say the same about his teammates.
Thompson looks like a shell of himself, with his scoring average down from 21.9 to 16.7 points per game. Andrew Wiggins is another player scoring fewer points. He's averaging 12.7 points after posting 17.1 last season.
Defensively, Golden State has gone backward — dropping from 15th to 17th in efficiency. Overall, the Warriors went from 11th (1.7) in Net Rating to 16th (0.4).
Given their success under Kerr, there's a natural tendency to overvalue the Warriors somewhat. Even after their 5-1 run with Green sidelined, some declared they were back to themselves again.
However, the numbers suggest there is still cause for concern.
It's hard to imagine that Curry is the only player averaging 20 or more points on the Warriors. Even Orlando has two players achieving this feat: Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
As problematic as Jordan Poole was for the Warriors, they still need to replace his scoring output of 20.4 points per game.
While his departure was viewed almost as an addition by subtraction, the math is still not adding up for Golden State.
Magic vs. Warriors Picks, Odds
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Despite the Warriors' struggles last season, you could expect a good account of them when playing in front of their fans. Golden State led the league with a .805 win percentage (33-8) at the Chase Center.
The Warriors are just 9-8 at home this season with a .529 win percentage.
When you look at Golden State as a unit, the consistency isn't there for multiple reasons. In contrast, I'm confident we'll get a more representative effort out of Orlando tonight because of its commitment to defense.
I felt much better about the spread for Orlando at +4 before it dropped to +3.5. As a result, I recommend taking an alternate number at +4 with -118 odds, which is available at BetRivers.
Pick: Magic ALT spread +4 (-118)
