Magic vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks | Best Bet for Friday
Here's everything you need to know about Magic vs. Nuggets on Friday, Jan. 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Nuggets will play their second game in as many days and travel from Golden State back to Denver. They take on the Orlando Magic, who are about to finish their Western Conference Road trip. The Magic have played the Suns, Warriors and Kings and have dropped all three games.
Can the Magic end the road trip on a high note or will Denver protect home court? Let's get to our Magic vs. Nuggets prediction and pick.
Magic vs. Nuggets Prediction
Pick: Nuggets -10.5
Magic Betting Outlook
The Magic have listed a number of players on the injury report for this game. Orlando will be without Franz Wagner (ankle), Jonathan Isaac (hamstring), Gary Harris (calf), Joe Ingles (ankle) and Markelle Fultz (knee). They've also listed Wendell Carter Jr. (knee) as questionable.
The biggest issue here is the absence of Wagner, who is averaging 20.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game and is second on the team in usage (25.9%). I'd imagine Paolo Banchero has to play big minutes, and the Magic start a lineup of Banchero, Anthony Black, Jalen Suggs, Caleb Houstan and Goga Bitadze.
Ultimately, this team will not be as competitive down some of its key rotation players. The Magic have only played 222 possessions without Wagner, Fultz, Ingles and Harris off the floor, and they have a -11.3 Net Rating in those possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. Even though Banchero is excellent, there's only so much he can do without the majority of the rotation.
Nuggets Betting Outlook
The Nuggets are playing their second game in as many days, but they get to travel back home for this contest. We will see if they hold anyone out on the back-to-back, but I think it's notable that they only listed Reggie Jackson (probable) on the report before their Thursday night game against the Warriors. For reference, in eight back-to-backs, these are the number of games missed for the Denver starters when it did not have long-term or multi-game injuries: Nikola Jokić (1), Jamal Murray (1), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (0), Michael Porter Jr. (0), Aaron Gordon (0). Even when the Nuggets have zero days of rest, they are 6-2.
Denver has also been significantly better at home than on the road. It is 14-3 at home with a +11.2 Net Rating, per Cleaning the Glass. The Nuggets have one of the league's largest home-court advantages because of the altitude, and they take advantage of it.
The key is that their starters are one of the league's best lineups, boasting a +20.8 Net Rating. The Nuggets' starters have handled business throughout the season, and as long as they all play, they should have no issue with a thin Orlando rotation.
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Magic vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 222 -110o / -110u | +330 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -108 | 222 -110o / -110u | -425 |
Editor's Note: Jokić is expected to play tonight.
When these teams met earlier in the season, the Magic won by dominating at the free-throw line. It will be more difficult for them to do so without the help of Wagner, who provides valuable dribble penetration, playmaking and scoring for the Magic. In that prior game, Murray did not play either.
In this spot, even though Denver is at a rest disadvantage, its lineup is intact. I expect the Nuggets to take care of business at home and send the Magic packing with another loss.
I do not expect this line to move much more considering Orlando's injury report is nearly entirely public. However, it would move if Denver rests anyone in this spot. I'd be prepared to back Denver as a double-digit favorite as long as Jokić plays.
