Magic vs. Bucks Prediction, Picks Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about tonight's Magic vs. Bucks pick.
The Orlando Magic have lost three in a row, and on the second night of a back-to-back they'll head back on the road, which has been a recipe for disaster this season.
Their opponents? None other than the 20-7 Milwaukee Bucks, who have been downright unstoppable at home.
Let's get to our Magic vs. Bucks prediction and pick.
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Magic vs. Bucks Pick
Pick: Over 237 (-110)
Magic Betting Outlook
While the Magic lost in seemingly stunning fashion on Wednesday night to a Heat team that didn't have Jimmy Butler, the Heat presented a matchup nightmare for Orlando given their ability to knock down shots from the perimeter.
They remain a top-5 defensive team by the metrics this season and, despite a tough game against Miami, they've defended incredibly well despite what their record would indicate.
The real issue for the Magic has been securing wins, or even coming close, on the road. They're just 5-7 straight up and 6-6 against the spread away from home, and have lost their last four on the road.
Orlando isn't a team that loves to shoot the 3-ball, ranking second-to-last in frequency of shot from deep, according to Cleaning the Glass, but shooting just 31.6% from 3 on the road compared to 36% at home has made life even harder on a team that already relies on defense to win games.
The strength of the Magic lies inside, where they remain a top-10 team defending at the rim, and they're also ninth in transition defense. They're first in percentage of shots taken at the rim and have converted on a strong 66.6% of looks in that zone.
Bucks Betting Outlook
Milwaukee, like Orlando, has thrived inside. It's not taking quite as many shots within four feet as its opponent on Thursday, but it's still one of this team's two preferred areas on offense.
The other would be beyond the 3-point arc, where the Bucks have knocked down 38% of shots, according to Cleaning the Glass, and overall this team ranks second in effective field goal percentage.
The Bucks can certainly shoot, and they have done a bang-up job as one of the best teams in the league when it comes to defending the 3, but they've left a lot to be desired defending inside, ranking 15th at the rim and 22nd against the mid-range jumper, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Overall, the Bucks have now won seven of eight and over that span have ranked second in offensive efficiency. They've maintained a league-average defense during that span and rank fifth in 3-point shooting, so continuing to knock down shots from deep will be vital to success here on Thursday.
It's worth noting that the Bucks have almost identical 3-point splits at home and on the road, with a slight dip of 0.8 points in Milwaukee.
Magic vs. Bucks Picks, Odds
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 238 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 238 -110o / -110u | -380 |
If there's one area the Bucks have not been very dominant, it's defending that the rim. So, against a team that leads the league in shooting frequency in this zone, I do think an already uninspiring defense will relent a bit even with Orlando's struggles at home and with some fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back.
On the flip side, however, we have to consider that this is another nightmarish matchup for Orlando considering the Bucks' incredible shooting from 3, which is exactly what cost them a win on Wednesday night at home versus Miami.
I don't see the Magic flexing their defensive muscles as they have all season against a team that has been excellent from outside, and with that I am somewhat scared of taking the points here as much as I'd like to on the back of what was probably an unfair scoreline to the Magic.
That brings me to the Over here. Sure, neither of these teams loves to play in transition, but the Bucks do rank fourth in pace this season and will likely control the tempo of this game as the team that should establish the lead early.
I think there are ways in for both of these offenses, and while the Magic may not win this game their offense should feature, at the very least, against a Bucks team that has been quite generous on defense over the course of their winning streak.
Magic vs. Bucks Pick: Over 237 (-110)
