| Magic Odds | +9 |
| 76ers Odds | -9 |
| Moneyline | +310 | -380 |
| Over/Under | 229.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA League Pass |
DraftKings has blessed us with a NBA Early Win Promo. The gist of the promo is you need to place a pre-game moneyline bet on a team and if they go up by 10 points at any time then your moneyline wager gets paid as a winner.
Here are the terms in a bit more detail via DraftKings:
- Place a pre-game, paid moneyline bet and if the team you choose leads by at least 10 points at any time in the game, your bet wins
- Bet will be settled as a winner when your team goes up 10 points
- You must select the Early Win token from your bet slip before placing your moneyline bet to apply the promotion
- Max Wager: $200
- If the team you place your moneyline bet on never leads by 10+ points, the bet will be settled in accordance with the game outcome
(Note: VIP bettors or those with Diamond status at the sportsbook could have maximum wagers of $500.)
I think it is much more profitable to take underdogs for this type of promotion. While it may be more “likely” for a favorite to go up by 10 at any point during the game, your ROI will generally be less than if an underdog jumps out to a 10 point lead or even wins outright less frequently.
When I look at the board tonight, there are a few underdogs that stand out to me, namely, the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers. I think both spreads are inflated and I’ve bet on both teams at +9.5; however, I think the Magic are the play here for a number of reasons.
Joel Embiid is questionable (foot) for tonight’s game and the Philadelphia 76ers are coming off an emotional win against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on Saturday. Embiid played his heart out during that game, and now Philly gets a chance to rest him tonight prior to another matchup with the Magic on Wednesday.
Additionally, the Philadelphia Eagles just clinched a trip to the Super Bowl, and you know who was celebrating on the sideline and with the team? Yes, the 76ers.
Can’t believe my 9ers lost, we outside though. pic.twitter.com/JafWBqMlpS
— James Harden (@JHarden13) January 29, 2023
Situationally, it’s a bad spot.
Let’s dive into the on-the-court cap. The Magic have the length and athleticism to be a thorn in the side of teams like the 76ers.
Fun Fact: Their projected starting lineup of Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. has played 356 possessions together — the Magic have a +9.9 Point differential in those possessions while scoring a whopping 125.8 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.
They’ve been one of the best teams in the league in the first quarter against the spread (one of the best full game ATS dogs 26-16-1, too) and I think they have a chance to get off to a hot start and cash this early.
Pick: Magic ML +310
