Lakers vs Timberwolves Prediction, Picks Tonight | Best Bet for Saturday
Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs. Timberwolves on Saturday, Dec. 30 — our Lakers vs Timberwolves prediction and picks tonight for the best bet for Saturday.
The Lakers will try to win back-to-back games for the first time in more than three weeks when they visit the Timberwolves. The Lakers haven't quite been the same since winning the inaugural In-Season Tournament (IST), as evidenced by a 3-6 skid.
Los Angeles is coming off a 133-112 home victory over the lowly Hornets. Saturday's matchup features a stiffer test against a Minnesota team that is currently the top seed in the conference.
When Lakers head coach Darvin Ham spoke to reporters, he was fully aware of the challenge ahead.
"Those guys are highly competitive, and it's two teams that are going to be right in the mix," Ham said. "One is at the top of the Western Conference. One is surging."
It helps that Ham will likely have his star players, LeBron James (knee) and Anthony Davis (ankle), available for the game. James will celebrate his 39th birthday, and I expect plenty of motivation on both sides that could lead to a high-scoring affair.
Let's get to our Lakers vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick.
Pick: Over 225.5
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Prediction
Pick: Over 225.5
Lakers Betting Outlook
I found it interesting to read Ham describe his team to reporters as "surging." Maybe he's viewing his team through the lens of their IST win.
However, given their recent run, I would say the Lakers are anything but surging.
Motivation and consistency are two themes you have to watch with the Lakers. I still think this Los Angeles team feels like it can flip a switch whenever required.
Some of that probably stems from their championship run in the bubble during the pandemic. And although that was four years ago, the presence of James and Davis continues to serve as the connective tissue between those teams.
The Lakers are a hard team to figure out because they're often noted for their defensive quality. Per TeamRankings, Los Angeles ranks seventh in efficiency, allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions.
However, Los Angeles doesn't particularly guard the perimeter well, ranking 26th in opponent 3-point attempts (37.6 per game) and 25th in opponent 3-point field goals (13.9 per game).
What's more striking about the Lakers is they generally play faster, ranking seventh in possessions with 104.5 per game.
While James and Davis might be the elder statesmen on the team at 39 and 30, Spotrac ranks this Lakers roster 12th in youth with an average age of 25.9 years.
Thus, I think it's time we start looking at this Lakers team differently from being this defensive juggernaut we've always associated with them. My findings suggest their current playing style creates more scoring opportunities for both teams.
Timberwolves Betting Outlook
The most significant change for the Timberwolves this season has been on the defensive end. Compared to last season, Minnesota's allowing five fewer points per 100 possessions now leads the league in defensive efficiency (104.9).
Offensively, the Timberwolves' stats don't exactly jump off the page at first glance. They're 17th in efficiency (110.8 points per 100 possessions) and 21st in 3-point field goals (12.1 per game).
However, Minnesota tends to make the most of its opportunities, considering it ranks sixth with an effective field goal percentage of 55.7%. What I like about this statistic is that it adjusts field goal percentage to account for the fact that a three-point field goal is worth more than a two-point field goal.
The Timberwolves aren't a team known for wasting possessions. Despite ranking fourth in 3-point shooting with 38.3%, Minnesota is only 26th in 3-point attempts with 31.6 per game.
In other words, Minnesota has some untapped potential to put up even more points per game.
Nonetheless, I suspect Minnesota is currently prioritizing balance rather than unbridled chaos. While the results may speak for themselves, the underlying numbers suggest this Timberwolves' offense remains somewhat undervalued.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Picks, Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 225 -110o / -110u | +168 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 225 -110o / -110u | -200 |
As good as these teams are defensively, one might expect them to play a higher proportion of lower-scoring games. However, both seem to profile more like an over team.
After all, the Lakers and Timberwolves are 33-29 to the over in their games.
Those numbers might suggest that the bookmakers haven't found the correct gauge when setting the total for these games. As a result, it makes sense to jump on the over when we have a total of 225.5 at FanDuel for this matchup.
My model projects a total of 229 points, giving me a significant edge over the current number.
Pick: Over 225.5 points (-110 via FanDuel)
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